Political Commentary - What Do We Worry About?

Does it make sense to talk about "British public opinion" as a single phenomenon? Surely the public consists of some many different groups with different interests and different strands of opinion that this is far too simplistic a notion? Well, no, not necessarily.

Every month the Ipsos Political Monitor asks the public what they think are the most important issues facing the country; the question is open-ended and the answers are unprompted, not picked from a list based on our pre-conceptions of what the answers ought to be. [The Most Important Issues Facing Britain Today] Within the scope of a single month's poll, though, there is not much we can do to look at differences in opinion between different age groups or different parts of the country; but aggregating all the polls from 2006 we have a big enough sample size to make comparisons.

It is often assumed that certain issues are the exclusive concern of specific groups or particular regions, and that well-designed political campaigns will need to aim different messages in different directions as a result. But in fact that is not really true: the same issue agenda is common across almost all sections of the electorate. Even though there are certain issues mentioned a little more by some groups than others the same group of issues is prominent among all groups and the differences are of degree, not of substance. The changes that occur over time, for example the considerable increase compared to ten years ago in the numbers mentioning race and immigration, affect the public across the board and across the country.

Most important issues by age and sex, 2006

Base: 10,892 GB adults 18+, January-December 2006

The one sectional interest that does stand out is the unsurprising news that women aged 18-44 -- the group including most mothers of young children -- are disproportionately exercised about education. Beyond that, both race and crime are more often mentioned by older than younger respondents; and women are more likely than men to mention the importance of the NHS and education, a distinction that has been present for many years. But even so, all four age / sex groups put the same five issues at the head of their lists, even though the order varies: any politician aiming to campaign on the NHS only among women and on race relations / immigration only among men would be completely missing the point.

Nor do we find much variation when we break down important issues by region:

Most important issues by region, 2006

Base: 10,892 GB adults 18+, January-December 2006

There is no real regional agenda in political priorities -- politics remains national, the top five issues again being the same everywhere. Scotland is slightly set apart, being less concerned over race / immigration and more over defence / foreign affairs and drug abuse than the rest of the country, which may owe something to its being less tied to the London news media than Wales or the English regions. London's high concern over housing is plainly a reflection of a local issue, and its low concern over race relations perhaps a natural reflection of the capital's cosmopolitan nature, though also an indication that a high local ethnic minority presence is not a driver of general fears about racial tension.

Of course, to some extent these findings no doubt reflect the question we ask -- respondents think about "important issues facing Britain", not those facing themselves or their local communities. But their ability to do so consistently, and come to the same conclusions, is significant. In Britain, "public opinion" really is a national phenomenon and a coherent whole, not simply the aggregation of local and sectional interests.