Political Leaders And Trust
Ipsos's recent poll for The Sun, conducted by telephone from 2pm -- 9pm on Wednesday 10th October, gives the Conservatives a three point lead over Labour among those who say they are certain to vote. The Conservative vote share is at 41% compared to 38% for Labour and just 11% for the Liberal Democrats.
The poll shows Cameron making advances against Brown in terms of some key leadership qualities. When asked who would make the most capable Prime Minister, 45% say Brown compared to 29% for Cameron -- a lead of 16 points for Brown. However, this lead was 41 points (58% Brown vs 17% Cameron) just one month ago. In addition, Brown's trustworthy rating has dropped in the last few months as Cameron's trust rating has increased -- although Brown's net trust rating is still one point higher than Cameron's (+5 vs +4).
Topline Results
- Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,007 adults in Great Britain aged 18+.
- Interviews were conducted by telephone on 10th October 2007.
- Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
- Download the data tabulations pdf, 207KB
Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote
Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
(If undecided or refused at Q1)
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (596)
| % | |
|---|---|
| Conservative | 41 |
| Labour | 38 |
| Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) | 11 |
| Scottish/Welsh Nationalist | 4 |
| Green Party | 2 |
| UK Independence Party | 1 |
| Other | 3 |
| Lab lead (177%) | -3 |
| Would not vote | 1 |
| Undecided | 4 |
| Refused | 1 |
Voting -- all
Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
(If undecided or refused at Q1)
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All naming a party (1,007)
| % | |
|---|---|
| Conservative | 36 |
| Labour | 42 |
| Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) | 12 |
| Scottish/Welsh Nationalist | 4 |
| Green Party | 3 |
| UK Independence Party | 1 |
| Other | 2 |
| Lab lead (177%) | +6 |
| Would not vote | 8 |
| Undecided | 7 |
| Refused | 1 |
Q3 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,009 British adults 18+
| % | |
|---|---|
| 10 -- absolutely certain to vote | 57 |
| 9 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 |
| 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 |
| 1 -- absolutely certain not to vote | 8 |
| Don't know | 1 |
| Refused | * |
Q4 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister -- Gordon Brown or David Cameron?
| Sept' 2007 | Oct' 2007 | |
|---|---|---|
| % | % | |
| Gordon Brown | 58 | 45 |
| David Cameron | 17 | 29 |
| None / neither | 17 | 16 |
| Don't know | 8 | 9 |
| Brown lead over Cameron | +41 | +16 |
Q5 In general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not? GORDON BROWN
| Jun '07 | Aug '07 | Oct '07 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | |
| Trustworthy | 37 | 54 | 48 |
| Not trustworthy | 49 | 37 | 43 |
| Don't know | 14 | 9 | 9 |
| Net trustworthy | -12 | +17 | +5 |
Q6 In general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not? DAVID CAMERON
| Jun '07 | Aug '07 | Oct '07 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | |
| Trustworthy | 34 | 36 | 44 |
| Not trustworthy | 46 | 50 | 40 |
| Don't know | 21 | 14 | 16 |
| Net trustworthy | -12 | -14 | +4 |
Q7 In general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not? MENZIES CAMPBELL
| Jun '07 | Aug '07 | Oct '07 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | |
| Trustworthy | 34 | 41 | 45 |
| Not trustworthy | 33 | 34 | 29 |
| Don't know | 33 | 25 | 25 |
| Net trustworthy | +1 | +7 | +16 |
Q8 Do you think that Gordon Brown was right or wrong in his decision not to call a General Election this Autumn?
| % | |
|---|---|
| Right | 47 |
| Wrong | 42 |
| Don't know | 11 |
