Predictions for 2026: Three quarters of Britons expect large-scale public unrest in the year ahead
Ipsos, one of the world's leading market research companies, announces the findings of its 2026 Predictions report. Since 2012, Ipsos has been tracking the public’s views on how they think the previous year has gone and what expect to happen in the next. Key findings include:
- Three quarters of Britons expect large-scale public unrest in 2026. 59% think there will be protests against the way their country is being run, highest in Peru (80%) and South Africa (76%). In Great Britain, 74% predict large scale unrest. Since 2019, three of the G7 countries – Great Britain, Japan (both+11pp) and United States (+10pp) - have seen a double-digit increase in the proportion that think there will be large-scale public unrest.
- Recession fears persist. Over half (56%) of Britons think the country will be in recession next year, slightly above the global average of 48%.
- Globally, people are more likely to think 2025 was a bad year for their country than it was for them. In Great Britain, 42% of Britons say 2025 was a bad year for me and family, down 4pp since last year and slightly lower than the global average of 50%. However, three in four (76%) Britons think it was a bad year for Great Britain, significantly higher than the global average of 66% who think it was a bad year for their country. Argentinians are the most likely to say it was a bad year for them (67%), followed by South Korea (66%). 85% in France say it was a bad year for their country, the highest across 30 countries.
- However, there is some optimism about the year ahead. 58% of Britons are optimistic 2026 will be better a year for them than 2025 was, although this is well below the global average of 71%. 32% believe in 2026 Britons will start to feel more optimistic about the future, up 9pp since last year (but once again below the global average of 52%).
- One in five globally think US President Donald Trump will win next year’s Nobel Peace Prize. 18% of Brits think that Donald Trump will win next year’s Nobel Peace prize, slightly lower than the average across 30 countries of 21% (64% globally think it is unlikely). Gen Z men are the most likely to feel this will happen (29% compared to 22% for Gen Z women). On average 25% of Americans think Trump will win, with Republicans (42%) more likely to believe the two-time President will scoop the prize than Democrats (16%).
- Two in five believe Argentina will win next year’s soccer World Cup. 87% of Argentinians expect the country to retain the World Cup in 2026, well above the global average of 41%. Germany (20%) and Brazil (25%) are the least likely to the Lionel Messi-captained team will lift the trophy at the final in the US, while 31% of Brits expect the reigning champions to triumph over our Lions.
Technical note:
For this survey, Ipsos interviewed a total of 23,642 adults aged 18 years and older in India, 18-74 in Canada, Republic of Ireland, Malaysia, South Africa, Türkiye, and the United States, 20-74 in Thailand, 21-74 in Indonesia and Singapore, and 16-74 in all other countries.
The sample consists of approximately 1,000 individuals each in Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, Spain, and the U.S., and 500 individuals each in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Ireland, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Romania, Singapore, South Korea, Sweden, Thailand, and Türkiye. The sample in India consists of approximately 2,200 individuals, of whom approximately 1,800 were interviewed face-to-face and 400 were interviewed online.
