Scots are no Euro-enthusiasts

Next year’s vote on Scotland’s constitutional future will not be the only in/out referendum being held in the next few years. Since the Prime Minister announced his intention to hold a vote on Britain’s membership of the EU if the Conservatives win the next election outright, measuring public support on this issue has become ever more important. Of course, if the 2014 independence results in a ‘Yes’ vote, Scotland may not still be part of the UK at the time of the EU referendum and so Scots will not get the chance to vote. But what is clear from our latest poll is that, while Scots could hardly be characterised as unbridled Euro-enthusiasts, there is a more favourable view of the EU than exists south of the border. A little over half of Scots (53%) would vote for Britain to stay in the EU if the referendum were held now, compared to a third (34%) who would prefer Britain to leave. Our November 2012 poll revealed a different story among English voters, half of whom would prefer Britain to get out of the EU with around four in ten (42%) wanting to retain membership. A more detailed look at the numbers reveals a level of consensus across political lines on the issue in Scotland that is not evident in England, with support for staying in the EU outweighing opposition among supporters of all political parties in Scotland. This extends to Conservative voters, traditionally seen as the most Euro-sceptic, but where 46% are content to remain in the EU while 37% wish to leave. This is in stark contrast to Conservative supporters across Britain as a whole where only 37% want Britain to remain members and 58% would back Britain leaving. Support for the EU is also higher among Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters in Scotland than their counterparts in England, suggesting a wider pro-EU consensus north of the border. This points to the view that the issue of EU membership is not the same politically explosive issue in Scotland as it is in England. It appears that, regardless of whether Scotland becomes independent or not, the public in Scotland is broadly supportive of maintaining close ties with the rest of the EU. This article was originally published in The Times