Scots pessimistic about the economy and most say the UK will not exist in 10 years

• Economic confidence in Scotland is low – 73% expect the general economic condition of the UK to worsen in the next 12 months, while 68% are similarly pessimistic about Scotland’s own immediate economic prospects.
• 3 in 5 Scots believe that the UK will not exist in its current form in 10 years’ time.
• Scots remain much more likely to feel the Scottish Government has handled the pandemic well (59%) than to say the UK Government has done so (22%). Slightly more people in England too feel the Scottish Government has handled Covid well (44%) than say the same of the UK Government (38%).

Economic prospects

New findings from Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel survey show that both the Scottish and UK publics are fairly gloomy about our immediate economic prospects. Across the UK, just 15% think the general economic condition of the UK will improve in the next 12 months, while 67% say it will get worse. Expectations are even more pessimistic in Scotland, where 73% expect the UK’s economy to get worse in the next year. Scots are not notably more positive about Scotland’s economic prospects – just 9% think Scotland’s economy will improve, and 68% that it will get worse.

When it comes to pandemic recovery, however, views in Scotland are more divided on whether Scotland’s economy will bounce back quicker or more slowly than the UK economy as a whole. While the most common view was that they will recover at around the same rate (43%), 31% think Scotland’s economy will recover more slowly than the UK economy as a whole, and 15% that it will bounce back quicker.

Future of the UK

Scots remain more likely than those in England and Wales to say the UK will not exist in its current form for much longer. As many as 61% of Scots say the UK will not exist in its current form in 10 years’ time, compared with 50% across the UK as a whole. 46% of Scots think it will not exist in 5 years’ time, compared with 33% across the UK as a whole.

Across the UK overall, however, the proportion predicting the demise of the UK within the next 10 years has fallen a little compared with early 2021 (from 56% to 53% between February and April 2021, and to 50% by February 2022).

Nicola Sturgeon has stated that she will press for another referendum on Scottish independence to be held in 2023. In the event that this goes ahead, over half of people in England (55%) would prefer Scotland to vote against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country, while just 13% would prefer Scotland to vote for independence. Views are similar in Wales, where 53% would prefer Scotland to vote against and just 14% would prefer it to vote for independence). However, views in Northern Ireland are less clear – 42% would prefer Scotland to vote to stay, but 29% would prefer it to vote for independence and leaving the UK.

Scottish Governments’ handling of the pandemic

The Scottish Government continues to attract more praise than the UK Government for its handling of the pandemic, both among those in Scotland, and across the rest of the UK. Views of the Scottish Government are, unsurprisingly, most favourable in Scotland, where 59% say the Scottish Government has handled the pandemic well, compared with just 22% who say the same of the UK Government. In England too though, slightly more think the Scottish Government has handled the pandemic well (44%) than say the same of the UK Government (38%).

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos Scotland, said:

Scots are pessimistic about the country’s economic prospects, which shows the public are well aware of the challenges facing the Scottish Government in delivering on its recently published National Strategy for Economic Transformation. Given wider pressures on the cost of living and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it comes as no surprise that people are feeling uncertain about the short-term future of the economy, and are divided over whether Scotland’s economic prospects are likely to be any different from the UK’s as a whole. Meanwhile, although 3 in 5 Scots expect the demise of the UK within 10 years, those in England and Wales would still prefer Scotland to vote No in any second referendum.

Technical note:

• This data has been collected by Ipsos’ UK KnowledgePanel, a random probability panel which provides gold standard insights into the UK population, by providing bigger sample sizes via the most rigorous research methods
• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 4,279 people over 16 in the UK (including 1,879 in England, 1,163 in Scotland, 802 in Northern Ireland, and 435 in Wales).
• Interviews were conducted online from 3rd to 9th February 2022.  
• Data are weighted to ensure the survey results are as representative of the population of the UK as possible. Two members per household are allowed to register on the KnowledgePanel, so we employed a design weight to correct for unequal probabilities of selection of household members. Calibration weights have also been applied using the latest population statistics. England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are each weighted separately while an additional weight has been created for the UK to account for any over or undersampling within each of these countries.