Seven in ten doubt David Cameron will get a good deal for Britain in Europe

The majority of Britons lack confidence that David Cameron will get a good deal for Britain in negotiations with other European leaders, including half of Conservatives, new polling from Ipsos reveals. Seven in ten (69%) say they are not very confident (40%) or not at all confident (29%) that the Prime Minister will get a good deal for his country. One in four (26%) think he will get a good deal, with 22% fairly confident and four percent very confident.

Opinion among Conservative supporters is evenly split as to whether their leader can deliver a good deal; 49% are very or fairly confident he will do so, while the same proportion (49%) are not very confident or not confident at all.

Three in four (73%) doubt that Mr Cameron will negotiate a deal with other European leaders to introduce controls on freedom of movement, with 37% not very confident and 36% not confident at all. One in five (20%) are very confident (two percent) or fairly confident (18%) that he will introduce such controls. This comes as Sir John Major yesterday warned European leaders will be fuelling the Eurosceptic cause if they denied the government help to ‘qualify’ free movement between EU countries.

Conservative supporters are more confident in Mr Cameron than the public as a whole on this matter, though most still lack confidence; one in three (34%) are very or fairly confident he will negotiate a deal to control freedom of movement, while 63% are not very confident or not confident at all.

Three quarters of Britons (75%) lack confidence in the Prime Minister to reduce net immigration to tens of thousands per year, as he pledged to do prior to the 2010 general election, with 36% not very confident and 39% not confident at all; 19% are confident, with 16% fairly confident and three percent very confident. Conservatives again remain unconvinced, though are slightly more confident than the public overall; one in three (32%) are very/fairly confident, while 66% are not very/at all confident.

Bobby Duffy, Managing Director at Ipsos said:

"With the rise of UKIP as a political force, issues around Europe and immigration have taken on a renewed sensitivity ahead of next year’s general election, and more immediately, the Rochester and Strood by-election later this month. A lot hangs on confidence in the PM to deliver controls on both EU freedom of movement and overall immigrant numbers.  Currently the majority of the public – and more importantly, the majority of Conservative supporters - are not convinced.”

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Technical note:

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,011 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 8-10 November 2014.  Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.