Six in ten people in England would keep the Green Belt as it is

• Six in ten (60%) would retain the current Green Belt ‘even if it restricts the country's ability to meet housing needs’,
• Three in ten (28%) think that more than half of land in England has been built on

New research by Ipsos for the Economist finds that six in ten people in England (60%) would retain the current Green Belt ‘even if it restricts the country's ability to meet housing needs’, whilst 21% state the opposite.

However, the survey also found the public wildly over-estimate development and see restrictive planning as a factor in the under-supply of homes.

A majority of people in Britain see housing as unaffordable for them and many link affordability to supply

• A majority of people in Britain (55%) and in England (also 55%) disagree that housing is affordable in Britain “for people like me”.
• Sentiment is very similar in respect of the local area; 54% across both Britain and England.
• This view is uniformly held, although this ‘priced out’ perception is more prevalent among renters (especially private renters) – in England, 72% disagree housing is affordable in their local area.
• By a margin of more than 2:1, Britons agree more than they disagree that ‘We will not make housing more affordable unless we increase the number of new homes being built every year’ in Britain (50% agree, 20% disagree) and in the local area (46% agree, 21% disagree). Sentiment is very similar in England.

A restrictive planning system features among reasons for under-supply, but other factors are more salient

• Having been told that Britain is currently building fewer homes per year than the Government has said it wants to see built, 52% of people across Britain and the same proportion in England consider the planning system and the Greenbelt as responsible a great deal or a fair amount. A similar 49% in Britain and in England think the difficulties for developers in finding sites to build new homes are to blame.
• However, the financial position of local councils preventing them building more new homes is seen as contributing a great deal/fair amount by 62% and 61% of people in Britain and in England. Lack of interest from politicians in building new homes and local opposition are also salient.

A plurality support building more homes locally but support is conditional on location

• Support for more homes being built locally outweighs opposition by 45% to 27% across Britain, with 24% taking neither position. This represents a swing back to the position in 2020 after increased levels of support in 2022 (support was 49% then).
• Levels of support across Britain are comparatively higher among men, younger age groups, in London, Scotland and the North of England, among graduates (and Remainers), Lab and Lib Dem 2019 voters, renters (esp. private renters) and those who agree that we need to be more homes to address affordability.
• Support is much for building new homes on greenfield – in England, 25% support this. By contrast, 69% support building on brownfield. Opinion is much more equivocal on this - even 61% of opponents of local building support a brownfield option (18% remain opposed).
• Around half, 53%, support building more flats/smaller plots, homes on smaller plots; the same proportion support landowners selling up unused land to local councils with 50% supporting councils meeting housing targets. In each case, fewer than 1 in 5 are in opposition.

In England, people significantly over-estimate the extent of past development

• The mean guess (excluding don’t knows) for the percentage of land in England currently developed - defined as “land that has been built on and is occupied by a permanent structure such as a building or a road, a path or pavement, a railway line” - was 47.12%.
• This compares to the real figure of 8.7% [source: ONS in April 2022] and is similar to an over-estimate of densely built-up land in 2018.
• A third of people, 32%, answer don’t know. This is higher among opponents of local home building (30%) and those undecided on this issue (42%) than it is among supporters (24%).
• A similar proportion of people, 28% (41% of those giving an answer), gave an answer of 50% or more.
• Supporters and opponents of home-building were equally likely to be correct, as were those who agreed/disagree that we will not make housing more affordable in Britain unless we increase the number of new homes being built every year.
• The mean guess (excluding don’t knows) for the percentage of land in England that is taken by people’s homes (excluding homes above shops and homes’ gardens) is 38.94% compared to the real figure of around 2% (source: Ordnance Survey).

A higher proportion prioritise retention of the Green Belt over housing needs than vice versa

• Respondents were informed that ‘In England, 13% of land is classified as Green Belt, which is undeveloped land around or between large urban areas on which building is not allowed’.
• They were presented with information as follows; ‘Some people argue that this should be retained to prevent large urban areas from spreading out or merging and protect agricultural and ‘greenfield’ land. Others argue that it contains some ‘brownfield’ land suitable for building and not building on the Green Belt means we cannot meet housing needs.’
• Six in ten people in England (60%) favour retaining the current Greenbelt ‘even if it restricts the country's ability to meet housing needs’, whilst 21% state the opposite.
• This balance in preference exists among all groups and geographies but is narrower among younger age groups, people in London, renters, those who support new building and those who agree that affordability will be a problem without increasing supply.

Ben Marshall, Research Director at Ipsos, said:

Even people who are instinctively pro- building new homes are cool on prioritising meeting the country’s housing needs at the expense of some Green Belt land.
This is likely to be related to the pretty warped mental image of how much of our landscape is built upon, likely to reflect the way people live but also their innate concerns. Another factor could be that they think there are many reasons, not just restrictive planning, for housing under-supply including political disinterest and local opposition.
This research further underlines the power of ‘green’ and ‘brown’ as words in narratives about building new homes and infrastructure. At the same time, public opinion is nuanced, something which politicians and planners should see as an opportunity as much as a threat. 

Technical note

Ipsos surveyed a representative sample of 2,122 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain via the online Omnibus platform between 14-17 July 2023. Some questions were confined to a sample of 1,850 in England (due to the availability of data on land use). Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.