Slight cooling of house price expectations, buying sentiment falls

Energy & Environment

The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker conducted by Ipsos finds 68% of the public expecting the average UK house price to rise in the next 12 months, down from 71% last quarter.

 

In Q3 2014, the Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker, conducted by Ipsos, finds 68% of the public expecting the average UK house price to rise in the next 12 months, down from 71% last quarter. This compares to 6% who expect the average price to fall (in line with the 5% who said this last quarter).

HPO, the headline House Price Outlook balance – i.e. the proportion of people that expect the average house price to rise in the next 12 months less those who think it will fall – is +62 compared to +66 in July 2014 and +64 one year ago in September 2013 (itself a sharp rise on June 2013’s +40).

Meanwhile, 49% of the public consider the next 12 months a good time to buy, in line with last quarter (47%) but lower than one year ago (57% in September 2013). Over the same period (Q3 2013 – Q3 2014), there has been an increase of 6 percentage points in the proportion who think it will be a bad time to buy, now at 38%.

Other findings include:

  • Buying sentiment is more negative in London and the South East where 55% and 38% respectively think the next 12 months will be a bad time to buy property
  • But Londoners are also more positive about selling: 70% think the next 12 months will be a good time to sell, the highest for this measure among Londoners since the survey’s inception.
  • Just over a third (35%) think it will be both a good time to buy and sell over the next 12 months, an increase of five percentage points since Q3 2014 when this figure stood at 30%.
  • Being able to raise enough deposit continues to be the most commonly identified main barrier to property purchase (57% say this), while 47% cite job security as a barrier. But 39% select household finances (from a list), up eleven percentage points since last quarter.
  • The majority of private renters, 68%, expect private rents to rise.

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    Technical note

    Ipsos interviewed 2,042 British adults aged 16+ face-to-face, between 12-21 September 2014. Data has been weighted to the known population profile.

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