SNP extend their lead while Scottish Labour support slumps

• The SNP lead constituency voting intentions on 39%, up 3 points from March. John Swinney’s approval rating has improved (+4 swing since March).
• Labour are down 5 points to 15%, neck and neck with Reform UK (also on 15%).
• Reform UK Scotland leader Malcolm Offord’s ratings have worsened (-4.5 swing since March).
• Energy policy is among the top 5 issues for the Scottish public for the first time.

Our headline estimate of Holyrood constituency voting intention is: 

• SNP: 39% (+3 points compared with Ipsos’ previous poll taken 19th – 25th March)
• Labour: 15% (-5)
• Reform UK: 15% (-1)
• Liberal Democrats: 10% (no change)
• Conservatives: 11% (+2)
• Scottish Green Party: 7% (no change)
• Other: 3% (+1)

Our headline estimate of Holyrood regional list voting intention is: 

• SNP: 29% (+3 points)
• Scottish Green Party: 16% (no change)
• Reform UK: 16% (+2)
• Labour: 15% (-4)
• Conservatives: 13% (+2)
• Liberal Democrats: 9% (-1)
• Other: 3% (no change)

The SNP have extended their lead over Labour and Reform UK according to the latest Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor, taken in the first week of the Holyrood election campaigns (26-31 March) and conducted in partnership with STV News. 

The poll puts the SNP on 39% of the constituency vote, with a 24-point lead over Labour and Reform UK (both on 15%). if replicated on polling day, this would nonetheless be a weaker performance than at the last Holyrood election in 2021, when the party won 48% of the constituency vote. 

While the SNP’s vote share on both constituency and regional list votes is up 3 points compared with Ipsos’ previous poll in March, Scottish Labour’s vote share has weakened by 5 points on the constituency vote and by 4 points on the regional list vote.  

Emily Gray, Managing Director of Ipsos in Scotland, commented: 

The SNP will be buoyed by these new numbers. Our poll shows them improving their polling lead early in the Holyrood election campaigns, John Swinney’s approval rating has risen, and the party remains the most trusted to handle the biggest issue for voters at this election, the NHS. 

Meanwhile the poll makes grim reading for Scottish Labour, showing their support weakening on both constituency and regional list votes. With more than four in ten voters saying they may change their minds, however, none of Scotland’s parties can afford to be complacent. For the SNP, voters switching allegiance between now and polling day could make the crucial difference to whether the party wins a majority of seats or is again a minority government.

Have voters made up their minds?

On both constituency and regional list votes, 42% of voters say they may still change their mind before polling day. 

• Those who say they’ll vote Reform UK or SNP are surer of their vote than those who say they’ll vote Scottish Conservative, Scottish Labour or Scottish Liberal Democrat: 66% of Reform UK voters and 65% of SNP voters say they’ve definitely decided on their constituency vote, compared with 54% of Scottish Conservative voters, 53% of Scottish Labour voters and 40% of Scottish Liberal Democrat voters.
• Among those who may change their mind on their constituency vote, 25% say they may switch to the Scottish Greens, 21% to the SNP, 20% to Scottish Labour and 19% to the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

Tactical voting
Among those saying they would vote for a party on their constituency vote, 12% say they are doing so to try and keep another party out in their constituency, rather than because it is the party that most represents their views. The likelihood of tactical voting is higher among those who intend to vote Liberal Democrat (21%) or Scottish Labour (20%) than among those who intend to vote SNP (12%) or Reform UK (7%).

Views on coalitions
If the SNP does not win a majority of seats on 7th May, one or more other parties could have an influence over the Scottish Government post-election – either because they join a coalition or because a minority government relies on their support.

• The least divisive option for the public appears to be the Scottish Liberal Democrats – 32% say they would be happy to see the Liberal Democrats having influence over the next Scottish Government, while just 14% would be unhappy with this.
• The Scottish Greens and Scottish Labour are more divisive prospects for the public. While 34% would be happy to see the Scottish Green Party having influence over the next Scottish Government, 29% would be unhappy. Similarly, 32% would be happy to see Scottish Labour having influence over the next Scottish Government, but 27% would be unhappy.
• Over half (52%) would be unhappy to see Reform UK having influence over the next Scottish Government, while 40% say the same of the Scottish Conservatives. 

What is driving voters’ decisions?
The Ipsos Political Triangle examines whether voters are more motivated to support a party because of the party’s policies, the party brand itself, or its leader. Survey participants are given 10 points to share between policies, party and leader according to their relative importance. According to Scottish voters, policies are the most important influence on their constituency vote decisions, with a mean score of 4.6 out of 10. Party is the next most important, with a mean score of 3.4, while leaders are seen as least important, with a mean of 2.0. 

Key issues for voters
Healthcare/the NHS is again seen as the top issue helping voters decide which party they’ll vote for (56%, unchanged since March). 
This is followed by inflation/the rising cost of living (returning to 41%, identical to December 2025, after a dip of 6 points in March) and immigration (27%). Energy policy is the 4th most important issue, with 27% saying this issue will be very important to how they vote – the first time energy policy has appeared in the top 5 issues for the public. 

A quarter of the public say Scottish independence/devolution will be very important to how they’ll vote (25%, rising to 57% among SNP supporters). The public remain divided on the constitutional question, with 50% of those likely to vote in an immediate referendum saying they would vote Yes and 50% that they would vote No. 

The SNP is the most trusted party to manage the NHS (27% trust) and tackle the cost of living crisis (25% trust), while Reform UK and the SNP are the parties most trusted to have the right stance on immigration (21% and 20% respectively). Around 1 in 5 of the public do not trust any of the parties on key issues.

Leaders
None of the party leaders asked about in Ipsos’ poll is rated positively overall by the public. This contrasts with the early-campaign position at the last Scottish Parliament elections in April 2021, when most of the Scottish party leaders enjoyed positive net satisfaction ratings.
First Minister John Swinney’s ratings have improved since March, and he is again the most highly rated of the political leaders asked about in this poll. 40% of the public say they are satisfied with his performance and 48% that they are dissatisfied – a net satisfaction rating of -8 and an upward swing of +4 since March. Meanwhile, Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar’s net approval rating has not moved, with 26% of the public satisfied with him and 55% dissatisfied - a net rating of -29. Dissatisfaction with Reform UK Scotland leader Malcolm Offord has increased, with 57% of the public dissatisfied with him and 16% satisfied, giving a net approval rating of -41 – a downward swing of -4.5 since March.

Notes:

• Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,038 adults aged 16+ across Scotland, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected online between 26th and 31st March 2026.
• Panel members are recruited via random probability sampling, by sending letters to randomly selected addresses, which invites them to join an online panel. This approach means every household in the UK had a known and non-zero chance of being selected to join the KnowledgePanel. Those who are digitally excluded are provided with a tablet and free, restricted data connection. A sample of 2,135 panellists aged 16+ in Scotland were invited to take part in the survey. The sample was stratified by age, qualifications and vote at the 2024 general election. The achieved sample was weighted in two stages:
  o    Design weights were applied to correct for the unequal probabilities of a person being selected for a survey, notably residents in smaller households have a higher chance of being selected.
  o    Calibration weights were applied through rim weighting to correct for differential non-response. Data was weighted to the adult population profile on age and gender, Scottish Parliament region, ethnicity, qualifications, work status and work sector (public sector/other), social grade, area deprivation, number of cars in household, and newspaper readership (print and digital). Population targets were obtained from the 2022 Census, ONS population estimates and other large-scale probability surveys.
• As the election approaches we are continuing to keep our methodology under review so that this gives results that are as accurate as possible. While Ipsos’ polling was overall highly accurate at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, our final poll slightly overestimated the Scottish Greens on the regional list vote. As an experiment, in both this survey and in our previous survey in March, half the sample was prompted with the Scottish Green Party on the regional list voting intention question as previously, while half the sample was not. Our initial findings in March suggested that prompting for the Scottish Green Party on the regional list makes little difference (around 1 percentage point) to the published Green figure, and we will continue to carry out further analysis on this.
• All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories.