There's a change in the 'certain to vote' demographic - and it favours Labour
Dr. Roger Mortimore writes in Politics.co.uk: "The thing that determines election outcomes is not how many people support a party but how many vote for it".
New polling data from Ipsos in the UK, conducted 7–11 August 2026, reveals deep public opposition to the early prison release scheme alongside persistent dissatisfaction with the broader criminal justice system.
New polling data from Ipsos in the UK, conducted 30th July – 4th August 2026, shows Labour taking a three-point lead over Reform UK (albeit still within the margin of error).
