Three in four think it’s unlikely Rishi Sunak wins the next General Election

New polling from Ipsos, conducted as local election results were being announced between 3-5 May, shows three in four Britons (75%) now think it is unlikely Rishi Sunak will win the next election. Only 14% still think the Prime Minister has a good chance of remaining in Downing Street come polling day. These are the public’s worst scores for his prospects since entering Number 10. 

Even among 2019 Conservative voters, eight in ten think it’s unlikely Mr Sunak beats Labour (79%). The public pessimism for the Prime Minister’s chances now rivals that of his predecessor, Liz Truss. In the days before she stepped down, only 13% thought she would win the next election, whilst 78% said otherwise.  

Elsewhere in the poll, just over three in five (62%) say the current Conservative government have been running the country badly, against 16% who say well. Similarly, the majority say Rishi Sunak has done a bad job as Prime Minister (57%), while one in five believe he has performed a good job (20%).  Criticism of the Prime Minister has increased 6 points since January, and now matches the numbers who were negative about Boris Johnson at the end of his tenure as PM (though still some way behind the level of criticism aimed at Liz Truss, when 76% though she was doing a bad job).

However, the public remain divided on how Labour’s Keir Starmer would perform as Prime Minister. Around one in three (32%) expect he would do a good job, whilst slightly more say he would do a bad job (36%).

Commenting on the findings, Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos, says:

After a tough set of results at last week’s local elections, the public do not set much store for Rishi Sunak’s chances at the next General Election. While they are not yet fully convinced by Keir Starmer, voters are clearly unimpressed with the performance of the Prime Minister and his government – and if anything getting worse -  which at the moment is enough to fuel expectations of a Labour victory. 

Technical note

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,090 adults aged 18-75 across Great Britain. Polling was conducted online on between 3-5 May 2024. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.