Election

The last of our polls in key marginal constituencies, Ipsos's new poll for Reuters points suggests that the Conservatives are inching towards a majority with a 7% swing from 2005 in these key battleground constituencies.

The fourth of our polls in key marginal constituencies, Ipsos's new poll for Reuters points towards a hung parliament; but a week before polling day, almost half of voters say they may still change their mind. Interviews were conducted on 23rd- 26th April 2010.

Brown is now seen as the most statesmanlike leader, and Clegg is most trusted, while Cameron's ratings have declined since last year

Voting intention in this poll is Con 36, Lab 30, Lib Dem 23: a slightly lower Lib Dem share that we have seen recently. But, almost half say they may change their mind before May 6th.

An Ipsos survey for The Economist confirms that it is not always easy to give the public what they (think they) want.

Q Which of the following comes closest to your reasons for intending to vote for the ... party?

Q Please tell me how much you agree or disagree with the following statement:
"I feel it is my duty to vote"
"It is my duty to vote"

The third of our polls in key marginal constituencies, Ipsos's new poll for Reuters shows a doubling of support for the Liberal Democrats. This has come mostly from people who were previously not sure whether they would vote, rather than from the Conservative or Labour core vote.

Our April Political Monitor shows that, among those who are absolutely certain to vote, 32% say they would vote Conservative, 32% Liberal Democrat and 28% Labour.