The second of our polls in key marginal constituencies, Ipsos's new poll for Reuters suggests that there is appetite for change in these marginals, but that Cameron has not yet convinced these voters that he is more capable than Brown.
Ipsos's 'The Political State of Play' gives a summary of our latest political polling to mark the start of the election campaign. Drawing on our latest polls both nationally and in key marginal constituencies, it provides an overview of recent voting intentions, attitudes towards the party leaders and key issues to voting.
Among those who are "absolutely certain to vote", 39% of Norwich South residents say they would vote for Labour's Charles Clarke, ahead of the Conservatives (20%), Liberal Democrats (19%) and the Greens (19%).
Our March Political Monitor shows that, among those who are absolutely certain to vote, 35% say they would vote Conservative, 30% Labour and 21% Liberal Democrat.
Data is based on 1,007 adults aged 18+ across 56 marginal constituencies in Great Britain. These are Labour held constituencies which the Conservatives need a swing of between 5% and 9% to win.
Among those who are "absolutely certain to vote", 37% say they would vote Conservative, 32% Labour and 19% Liberal Democrat. Assuming a national uniform swing, these shares of the votes would make Labour the largest party in a hung Parliament (with about 294 seats to the Tories' 275).
