Dazed and Confused

Has the Recent Cannabis Debate helped or hindered the Tories

The immediate reaction to Ann Widdecombe's speech was negative, with even traditionally Tory papers such as the Telegraph describing it as displaying 'zero common sense', as well as receiving criticism from the police. Furthermore, it was followed up by revelations from eight Shadow Cabinet Members that they had experimented with cannabis when young. But after a weekend's polling of the general public on the issue, is it possible to pull out any positive messages for the Tories?

At first glance, the most obvious message appears to be that the British public disagrees with the Shadow Home Secretary's proposals. In a survey MORI conducted for the Mail on Sunday [DRUGS POLL] over last weekend among a national sample of the British public, 49% said that they opposed her policy, while 38% supported it. Even among Conservative supporters, the proportion in favour of the Widdecombe plan stood as fewer than one in two (44%). Furthermore, there was a clear majority for decriminalising the obsession of cannabis for personal use (by 58% to 29%), and an overwhelming majority in favour of making it available for medicinal purposes (87%, with 7% against).

Since 1997, the proportion believing that cannabis leads on to harder drugs has fallen, while those who think that the police spend too much time prosecuting cannabis users instead of harder drugs has risen. The Tories must also be wary of alienating the one in five (19%) of British adults (rising to 30% of 18-34 year olds) who admitted having taken cannabis. On the other hand, there are few of the British public who want to see cannabis as widely available as tobacco and alcohol (opposed by two in three of the public).

One might argue that the Tories may also have benefited from the decision by the decision of the eight Shadow Cabinet Members to come clean about their past - 72% think they were right to do so, and 56% think that Labour Cabinet Ministers should follow suit. In a poll MORI conducted at the same time for Carlton TV [Political Attitudes in Great Britain], William Hague was also seen as slightly more in touch with what ordinary people think than Tony Blair. Could the revelations by Shadow Cabinet Ministers have made the Conservatives appear more in tune with popular feeling on this issue?

Before we move to such a conclusion, we need to reflect on the findings of our poll for Carlton TV' "It's Your Shout" a little more, as it enables us to take stock of how views have changed over the last month or so. In one survey soon after the fuel crisis, we found that people thought that the Labour Government was more divided that the Conservative Party. Over the last three weeks, however, Labour has slightly improved its position, while the Tories are seen as much more divided (26% now think they are united, 60% divided, compared with 36% and 45% in September). If the voters believe press coverage that the cannabis debate has opened up a new split in the Conservative Party between libertarians and authoritarians, this could be the worst news of all for Hague; divided parties do not win elections.