Voting Intentions in Great Britain 2002-present
Voting intentions based on all those expressing an opinion, from all Ipsos's and MORI's published polls since November 2002. These are NOT the "headline" voting intention figures
This page shows the voting intentions of all respondents who name a party that they say they intend to vote for, whether or not they are certain that they will vote. This is not our "headline" voting intention figure.
We currently regard the voting intentions of those “absolutely certain to vote” as the most useful trend indicator, since it includes only those voters whose frame of mind is nearest to those who actually vote at elections: this has been our "headline" figure since November 2002. (The figures calculated as shown in this table were the "headline" figure up to October 2002. When turnouts were much higher than is usual today, this offered a good approximation to actual voting behaviour; in more recent years it has over-represented Labour’s real electoral strength, since more supporters of Labour than of other parties fail to vote.)
Most polls were conducted with face-to-face interviewing. Polls conducted by telephone are indicated with a (T).
1976-1987 | 1987-1997 | 1997-2002
Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? (Ask those undecided / refused)
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
| 2002 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Green | Dem/ UKIP/ Ref | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 14-19 November 2002 | 27 | 47 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +20 |
| 12-17 December 2002 | 29 | 43 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +14 |
| 2003 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP/ Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 23-27 January 2003 | 27 | 44 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| 20-25 February 2003 | 25 | 44 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 20-24 March 2003 | 27 | 46 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 24-28 April 2003 | 26 | 47 | 20 | 4 | 1 | * | 2 | 21 |
| 22-28 May 2003 | 28 | 43 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 19-24 June 2003 | 27 | 43 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 17-22 July 2003 | 32 | 40 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 28 August - 2 September 2003 | 30 | 40 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11-16 September 2003 | 29 | 43 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 23-28 October 2003 | 35 | 38 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 20-25 November 2003 | 31 | 41 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 11-17 December 2003 | 28 | 43 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 2004 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP/ Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 15-20 January 2004 | 31 | 41 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 12-16 February 2004 | 32 | 39 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11-16 March 2004 | 32 | 40 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 15-19 April 2004 | 31 | 40 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 27 May - 1 June 2004 | 30 | 37 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 24-29 June 2004 | 28 | 37 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 22-27 July 2004 | 28 | 36 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 12-16 August 2004 | 30 | 38 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 10-14 September 2004 | 29 | 37 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 21-27 October 2004 | 27 | 40 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 4-8 November 2004 | 29 | 39 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 2-6 December 2004 | 27 | 40 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 2005 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP/ Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 20-24 January 2005 | 27 | 42 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 17-21 February 2005 | 31 | 43 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 17-22 March 2005 | 33 | 39 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 1-3 April 2005* (T) | 33 | 38 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 5 |
| 7-9 April 2005* (T) | 30 | 41 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +11 |
| 7-11 April 2005 | 30 | 41 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +11 |
| 15-18 April 2005* (T) | 31 | 41 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +10 |
| 18-19 April 2005* (T) | 28 | 41 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +13 |
| 21-25 April 2005* | 30 | 40 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +10 |
| 28-29 April 2005* (T) | 32 | 38 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +6 |
| 29 Apr-1 May 2005* (T) | 26 | 41 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +15 |
| General election result (5 May) | 33.2 | 36.2 | 22.6 | 8.0 | +3 | |||
| 19-23 May 2005 | 27 | 40 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +13 |
| 16-20 June 2005 | 26 | 44 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +18 |
| 14-18 July 2005 | 26 | 43 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +17 |
| 11-15 August 2005 | 28 | 43 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +15 |
| 22-26 September 2005 | 28 | 42 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +14 |
| 20-25 October 2005 | 30 | 43 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +13 |
| 17-22 November 2005 | 29 | 46 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +17 |
| 9-12 December 2005 (T) | 37 | 35 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 1 | * | -2 |
* Asked as, "How do you intend to vote in the General Election on May 5th?" (T) = Telephone polls
| 2006 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP/ Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 19-23 January 2006 | 35 | 42 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +7 |
| 16-20 February 2006 | 33 | 41 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +8 |
| 16-21 March 2006 | 31 | 42 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 |
| 27 April - 2 May 2006 | 33 | 35 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 |
| 25-30 May 2006 | 36 | 34 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| 8-12 June 2006 | 35 | 36 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 |
| 20-22 June 2006 | 33 | 37 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +4 |
| 20-24 July 2006 | 32 | 37 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +5 |
| 31 August - 6 September 2006 | 30 | 38 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +8 |
| 12-16 October 2006 | 32 | 41 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +9 |
| 9-14 November 2006 | 31 | 36 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +5 |
| 7-12 December 2006 | 34 | 40 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 2007 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP/ Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 19-29 January 2007 | 35 | 40 | 18 | 4 | 2 | * | 1 | +5 |
| 9-15 March 2007 | 37 | 39 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 |
| 19-25 April 2007 | 34 | 36 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +2 |
| 17-22 May 2007 | 33 | 39 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +6 |
| 14-20 June 2007 | 32 | 42 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +10 |
| 12-17 July 2007 | 31 | 45 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +14 |
| 8-9 August 2007 (T) | 29 | 42 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 | +13 |
| 23-29 August 2007 | 31 | 45 | 16 | 3 | 1 | * | 3 | +14 |
| 20-22 September 2007 (T) | 30 | 44 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +14 |
| 20-26 September 2007 | 28 | 48 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +20 |
| 27-28 September 2007 (T) | 31 | 45 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +14 |
| 10 October 2007 (T) | 36 | 42 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +6 |
| 18-23 October 2007 | 35 | 43 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +8 |
| 29 November-7 December 2007 | 37 | 39 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +2 |
(T) = Telephone polls
| 2008 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP/ Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 17-23 January 2008 | 33 | 43 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +10 |
| 21-26 February 2008 | 34 | 42 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +8 |
| 13-18 March 2008 | 35 | 40 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +5 |
| 17-22 April 2008 | 37 | 38 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 |
| 15-20 May 2008 | 40 | 34 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 |
| 13-15 June 2008 (T) | 41 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -7 |
| 18-20 July 2008 (T) | 44 | 38 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -16 |
| 15-17 August 2008 (T) | 42 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -14 |
| 12-14 September 2008 (T) | 45 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -16 |
| 17-19 October 2008 (T) | 39 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -6 |
| 14-16 November 2008 (T) | 36 | 41 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +5 |
| 27-28 November 2008 (T) | 39 | 37 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 |
| 10-11 December 2008 (T) | 36 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +4 |
| 12-14 December 2008 (T) | 35 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 |
(T) = Telephone polls
| 2009 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP/ Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | BNP | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 16-18 January 2009 (T) | 40 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -6 |
| 13-15 February 2009 (T) | 39 | 31 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -8 |
| 13-15 March 2009 (T) | 39 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -6 |
| 17-19 April 2009 (T) | 37 | 32 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | * | -5 |
| 29-31 May 2009 (T) | 35 | 24 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -11 |
| 12-14 June 2009 (T) | 37 | 26 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -11 |
| 19-21 June 2009 (T) | 36 | 25 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | -11 |
| 17-19 July 2009 (T) | 35 | 27 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | -8 |
| 21-23 August 2009 (T) | 37 | 29 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -8 |
| 25-27 September 2009 (T) | 35 | 26 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -9 |
| 16-18 October 2009 (T) | 40 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -9 |
| 13-15 November 2009 (T) | 34 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 11-13 December 2009 (T) | 37 | 31 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -6 |
| 2010 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP/ Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | BNP | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 26-28 January 2010 (T) | 38 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -4 |
| 19-22 February 2010 (T) | 35 | 34 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 |
| 19-22 March 2010 (T) | 32 | 33 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 |
| 18-19 April 2010 (T) | 29 | 30 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
| 23 April 2010 (T) | 35 | 31 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -4 |
| 5 May 2010 (T) | 33 | 32 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| Election result (6 May) | 36.9 | 29.7 | 23.6 | 9.8 | -7 | ||||
| 18-20 June 2010(T) | 35 | 34 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
| 23-25 July (T) | 38 | 35 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | * | -3 |
| 10-12 Sept (T) | 36 | 37 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
| 15-17 Oct (T) | 37 | 38 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 |
| 12-14 Nov (T) | 33 | 43 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 2 | * | 1 | +10 |
| 10-12 Dec (T) | 36 | 38 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | * | +2 |
(T) = Telephone polls
| 2011 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP/ Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | BNP | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 21-24 January 2011 (T) | 32 | 42 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +10 |
| 18-20 February 2011 (T) | 34 | 41 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +7 |
| 11-13 March 2011 (T) | 35 | 41 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 |
| 15-17 April 2011 (T) | 36 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | * | +4 |
| 20-24 May 2011 (T) | 33 | 41 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +8 |
| 17-19 June 2011 (T) | 36 | 39 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 |
| 16-18 July 2011 (T) | 31 | 42 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +11 |
| 20-22 August 2011 (T) | 34 | 40 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 2 | * | 1 | +6 |
| 10-12 September 2011 (T) | 34 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 |
| 22-24 October 2011 (T) | 33 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +7 |
| 19-21 November 2011 (T) | 33 | 42 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 3 | * | 1 | +9 |
| 10-12 December 2011 (T) | 39 | 38 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 |
| 2012 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP/ Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | BNP | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 21-23 January 2012 (T) | 38 | 38 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | * | 0 |
| 25-27 February 2012 (T) | 33 | 43 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +10 |
| 17-19 March 2012 (T) | 35 | 38 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +3 |
| 21-23 April 2012 (T) | 35 | 40 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 |
| 12-14 May 2012 (T) | 32 | 43 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +11 |
| 9-11 June 2012 (T) | 29 | 43 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +14 |
| 14-16 July 2012 (T) | 32 | 41 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +9 |
| 11-13 August 2012 (T) | 33 | 41 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +8 |
| 15-17 September 2012 (T) | 32 | 42 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | * | 1 | +10 |
| 20-24 October 2012 (T) | 32 | 43 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +11 |
| 10-13 November 2012 (T) | 30 | 46 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +16 |
| 8-10 December 2012 (T) | 32 | 43 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +11 |
| 2013 | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP/ Plaid Cymru | Green | UKIP | BNP | Other | Lab lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | ± % | |
| 12-14 January 2013 (T) | 31 | 45 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | * | 2 | +14 |
| 9-11 February 2013 (T) | 31 | 41 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +10 |
(T) = Telephone polls
