What do Britons think is in store for 2015?
A clear majority of Britons think the Scottish National Party will gain more votes than Labour in Scotland and that UKIP will get more than ten seats in the 2015 general election, according to Ipsos’s Annual Predictions Poll. Almost three in four Britons (73%) think it is very or fairly likely that the Scottish National Party will gain more Scottish votes than Labour, including 84% of Scots – and 69% of Labour supporters. Just 20% think it is very or fairly unlikely. Nearly six in ten (57%) think it is likely that UKIP will win more than ten seats at the general election, including 85% of UKIP supporters and 64% of Conservatives; four in ten (39%) think it is unlikely.
Far fewer think that the events of the coming year will see Boris Johnson become leader of the Conservative Party; three in ten (29%) see such a scenario as likely, with two in three (65%) seeing it as unlikely. Conservative voters are least likely to foresee this – just 22% think it likely (compared to 30% of Labour voters, 35% of Liberal Democrat supporters and 37% of UKIP’s backers).
We appear more confident of recognition for national work on the silver screen than awards on the sports field in 2015; more than half of Britons (56%) think it is likely Benedict Cumberbatch will win an Oscar in the new year (19% think it is unlikely), while just 29% think it is likely England will win the rugby World Cup. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Scots are even less likely to think England will win the World Cup on home turf, with just 17% saying they’re likely to do so.
Just under four in ten (37%) think it is likely that Prince Harry will get engaged in the new year (45% say it is unlikely). This is down from last year, when 44% thought he would get engaged in 2014, but still up from the 20% who thought it was likely he would get engaged in 2013.
One in seven Britons (14%) think it is likely that we will find life on Mars in 2015, while 81% think it is unlikely. Last year, a slightly different question found nearly three in ten (28%) thought it was likely the NASA Mars Rover would find evidence of life on Mars.
After a year in which terrorist groups made frequent headlines, half of Britons (49%) think it is likely that a major terrorist attack will be carried out in the UK next year. Slightly less than half (45%) think such an attack is unlikely.
Britons provide a mix of positive and negative predictions for the economy and immigration in the new year:
- Three in ten (30%) expect unemployment to rise, down from 44% last year and 56% the year before. One in three each expect unemployment to stay the same (35%) or fall (33%).
- Half of Britons (52%) expect the inflation rate to rise, unchanged since last year; 36% expect inflation to stay the same and eight percent expect it to fall.
- One in five (21%) expect their standard of living to rise, with 17% expecting it to fall and 61% expecting it to stay about the same. This shows little change on last year, but consolidates a positive shift from predictions for 2013, when 31% thought their living standards would fall.
- Almost six in ten (57%) expect mortgage interest rates to rise, up from 52% last year and 38% the year before. Three in ten (31%) expect mortgage interest rates to stay about the same, while six percent think they will fall.
- Nearly half of Britons (47%) think the number of immigrants coming into the country will rise in the coming year; 39% think it will stay the same and 13% think it will fall.
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:
"The big political event of 2015 is of course the election – and these predictions from the public back up everything else they have been telling us at Ipsos throughout the rest of the year about the struggle of the main parties and the rise of their challengers. They also point to one of the key battlegrounds – that despite improvements in the economy, few people are confident that their own standard of living will rise.Having said that, making predictions can be tricky, both for experts and the public alike. Our Perils of Perception work highlighted the many areas where there is a gap between public perception and the reality, and looking back at last year’s poll, while the public correctly bet against some events (such as no repeat of the 2011 riots), they didn’t predict UKIP’s success in the European elections, and over-estimated the likelihood of others. They were also too pessimistic about unemployment and the rate of inflation. So 2015 can still hold surprises for us all.”
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Technical note
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,012 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 13-15 December 2014. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
