Worcester's Weblog

MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester analyses the latest opinion poll data.

More than a third of 2001 Labour voters have defected from Labour, saying they no longer intending to vote in this election for the Labour Party, according to a massive meta-analysis of electors interviewed by MORI so far during this general election. The Tories have lost around a fifth of their 2001 supporters, and the Lib Dems three in ten. Half the defecting Tories (9% of their 2001 vote) have gone to other parties, most of the remainder (7%) are undecided. Ex-Lib Dems go two-thirds (19%) to other parties (including 9% to Con, 5% to Lab), and 9% undecided.

All the campaign polls show Labour to be some way below its 2001 share of the vote. See Polltrack for a full set of voting intention results for all national polls in this campaign, updated daily.

This new analysis for the GMB analysis found from these questions:

Question 1: Who are the "Labour disaffected", those people who voted for the party in 2001, but now propose to vote for another party, or are not sure whether they will vote at all.

To help answer this question, MORI has conducted analysis on behalf of the GMB looking at more than 10,000 people interviewed during the campaign. This enables us to look at the views of the electorate in considerable detail. The MORI sample found 1,300 "Labour disaffected".

We are able to look at their demographic profile, and to compare their characteristics with other groups, including "Labour loyalists" and the population as a whole.

Headlines:

What has happened to Labour's 2001 vote -- i.e., those who say they voted Labour four years ago? Our analysis gives us the following breakdown:

• A third, 35%, no longer support Labour
• However, two thirds, 65%, still support Labour
• One in ten, 11%, have moved to the Liberal Democrats
• One in twenty, 6%, have moved to the Conservatives
• Another one in twenty, 4%, have moved to another party
• ...but the largest group -- 14% -- have not moved to any party, and are now saying they are "undecided", "would not vote" or refuse to answer the question. This pattern is particularly marked among women.
• They are a fluid group: most Labour disaffected -- 55% -- say they may still change their mind before they vote. This compares with 41% for all those currently supporting any of the political parties.
• Some six in ten (61%) say they are absolutely certain to vote. This compares with 70% among Labour loyalists, although it is a little higher than for the electorate as a whole (57%). In other words, disaffecteds are at least as likely to turn out as anyone else.
• "Labour disaffected" comprised 11% of the electorate in interviews conducted pre-campaign (i.e. up to 4 April). This figure has been at a stable 13-14% for interviews conducted from 5-19 April
• Demographically, they are VERY similar to the population as a whole, in terms of gender, social class, work status etc. But there are some interesting differences. For example, women are less likely than men to have moved from Labour to another party; almost half (46%) are now in the "would not vote / undecided / refused" camp, compared with 33% of men.

Question 2: What are the views of "Labour disaffected" on some of the key issues in the election?

"Labour disaffected" comprise around 13% of the total electorate, so a campaign poll of 1,000 provides us with a relatively limited sample of around 130 to work with. However, the start of campaign MORI / Evening Standard "Election Issues" survey, conducted between 7-11 April, gives us a sample of 1,973 to work with, including the perspectives of some 256 "Labour disaffected". We'll have more towards the end of this week and will report them when we do.

Today's news focuses very much on Iraq. The headlines on this issue are as follows:

• Among the public as a whole, 18% single out Iraq as one of the issues they think will be very important in helping decide which party to vote for. This places it 14th out of the 16 issues measured. It is not an "issue / issue", but an "image / issue".
• Labour loyalists are less likely to see Iraq as a central issue (13%)
• But double that of Labour disaffected, 27%.
• And among the sub-group of disaffected who have moved from Labour to the Lib Dems, this figure rises to a third, 33%.
• Liberal Democrats also tend to be seen by Labour disaffected as the party with the best policies on Iraq:

Q. "Do you think the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party have the best policy on Iraq?"

Technical Details:

MORI's aggregate analysis for the GMB is based on results from 10,060 interviews conducted between 30 March and 19 April 2005. Data have been weighted to the national population profile. The election was called on 5th April 2005.

The "issues" analysis is based on the MORI / Evening Standard poll, conducted face-to-face between 7-11 April 2005, with a national sample of 1,973.