Cliff’s Take: Adjusted to Our New COVID-19 World

Hope all are safe and well. I detail the polling data from the past week that I thought most important to explain our COVID-19 world.

1. Behavioral Stabilization. Across all behavioral measures on our Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index, we see a continued leveling of change. I created behavioral and mental health indexes across four domains. See the shape of the curves in the graph below—the data speak for itself.  Again, America is taking a collective pause. 

    

2. American Consumer Confidence Steadies After Drop. After the largest drop in our series history, nearly 15 points from late March, consumer confidence is now hovering around 45 points or so. I believe that much of the effect of the more than 16 million employment claims are already baked into the numbers. Let’s see what happens in the next few weeks as economic woes continue. 

    

3. Social Distancing Continues. Americans are doing their part and continue to social distance. Take a look below at how many Americans are self-quarantining and avoiding restaurants.  Similarly, a recent ABC/Ipsos poll shows that 55% of Americans are wearing masks outside.  This is America at its best. 

    

4. Trump Is Losing His Shine. Trump had an initial bump in his COVID-19 approval numbers as Americans rallied around their president. His shine seems to have worn off. We see a similar trend in President’s overall approval ratings—a mid-March bump to 44% now back to 40%—his historic average. Let’s see if Americans blame Trump for the increasing body count and unemployment claims. These potential negatives should come into greater relief in the next month. 

    

5. Attenuated Partisanship in Our COVID-19 World. Partisanship and tribalism persist against the backdrop of our COVID-19 world, but in an attenuated way. Republicans and Democrats, indeed, see the pandemic through very different lenses. But differences on social distancing and other health related measures are not as large as what we typically see on political issues (see, for instance, Trump’s handling of COVID-19). Measures to protect our good health collectively blur our own tribal affiliations. 

    

Finally, see my recent virtual town hall with ARF for a synthesis of the above.  Again, be safe.

For more information, please contact:

Clifford Young

President, U.S.
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2016
[email protected]

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