Americans split on continuing military aid to Israel

Washington, DC, March 1, 2024 – The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that Americans are split on whether the U.S. should continue providing military aid to Israel. Nearly half (47%) of Americans say they would be more likely to support a 2024 presidential candidate who continues to support Israel, while 48% say they would be less likely to support a candidate who does so. These sentiments, however, vary by political affiliation. While at least half of Democrats (56%) and independents (51%) say that continuing to give military aid to Israel would make them less likely to support a presidential candidate, most Republicans (62%) say doing so would make them more likely to support a presidential candidate.

Opinion on Israel/Hamas: Consistent from October and November 2023, a plurality (34%) of Americans say they trust neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump to broker peace in the Middle East. Still, they are slightly more likely to say they trust Donald Trump to do so than Joe Biden (30% vs. 25%, respectively). With the 2024 presidential election looming ahead, about half of Americans, regardless of political affiliation, say they are closely following news about the war between Israel and Hamas. Roughly one-fifth say they are following it very closely.

Just over half (54%) of Americans say the U.S. should be a neutral mediator or not involved in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. This includes 36% who say the U.S. should be a neutral mediator and 18% who say the U.S. should not be involved at all. While this majority sentiment exists among Democrats and independents, fewer Republicans agree (64% and 59% vs. 37%, respectively). That said, a bare majority of Republicans (53%) say the U.S. should support Israel. Regardless, most Americans (63%) say that, given the current economic climate, the U.S. cannot afford to be taking military action in the Middle East.

Opinion on Ukraine: Similar to U.S. military action in the Middle East, three in five (60%) Americans say that, given the current economic climate, the U.S. cannot afford to be taking military action in Ukraine. Slightly more Americans, however, say they would be more likely to support a presidential candidate who continues to support Ukraine with military aid than continue to support Israel (54% vs. 47%, respectively). Unlike military aid to Israel, the majority of Democrats (70%) say they would be more likely to support a presidential candidate if they continue supporting Ukraine with military aid. A bare majority (54%) of independents say the same, but less than half of Republicans agree (44%). These partisan differences set Ukraine and Israel apart – with Republicans more so favoring military aid to Israel, and Democrats more so favoring military aid to Ukraine.

Opinion on Biden investigations: Finally, when asked how Hunter Biden’s legal troubles would impact their likelihood of voting for Joe Biden, the majority of Americans (58%) say they have no impact on their intent to vote. The majority of Democrats and independents share this sentiment (74% and 60%, respectively), but Republicans are more divided on the issue. While 46% of Republicans say Hunter Biden’s legal troubles would not impact their likelihood of voting for Biden, a similar share (45%) say they would be less likely to vote for him because of it.

In mid-February 2024, prior to conducting this poll, Special Counsel David Weiss revealed that an FBI informant had been indicted for colluding with Russia to make false statements about Hunter Biden’s business involvement in Ukraine. When asked how believable it is that a former FBI informant lied to the FBI about the Biden family, nearly three in five (57%) say it’s believable. And, one-third (32%) say it’s very believable. While roughly one-fifth of Americans, regardless of party affiliation, say they’re not sure they believe it, most Democrats (78%) and independents (57%) say they do, and a plurality of Republicans (45%) say the same.

For more information about this study, please click here.

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted February 26-28, 2024, by Ipsos for Reuters using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative probability sample of 1,185 general population adults age 18 or older in the United States. The sample includes 337 Democrats, 357 Republicans, and 359 Independents.

 The margin of sampling error for this study is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.10. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on other sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent. The poll also has a margin of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 5.3 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 5.3 percentage points for independents. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which is 1.05 among Democrats, 1.03 among Republicans, and 1.04 among independents.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, Census region, education, household income, metropolitan status, and political party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Political Party Benchmarks came from high quality polling. More details about the weighting benchmarks for this study can be found below:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelors and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• Political party (Republican, Democrat, Independent, Other/Not Asked/Skipped)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson

Senior Vice President, US

Public Affairs

+1 202 420-2025

[email protected]

Annaleise Azevedo Lohr

Director, U.S.

Public Affairs

[email protected]

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