Americans view prediction markets as closer to gambling
Washington, D.C., March 17, 2026 – A new American Institute for Boys and Men/Ipsos poll finds that a majority of both the general public and young men ages 18–24 view prediction markets as closer to gambling than investing. Few believe that prediction markets are good for society, and a majority believe it is a bad idea to leave them completely unregulated.
The poll also finds that, while familiarity with prediction markets is low, those who have heard of them largely view them as financially risky. Lastly, while usage of prediction markets is low, young men are significantly more likely to use both prediction markets and gambling platforms in general.
For more information about this study, please click here.
Detailed Findings
1. While prediction market familiarity and usage are low, the perceived financial risk is high.
- One in five Americans (21%) reports being at least somewhat familiar with prediction markets. Young men ages 18-24 (29%) are more likely to be familiar, though this still represents a minority.
- Usage of prediction markets is also low. Just 3% of Americans and 8% of men ages 18-24 report using one in the past six months.
- However, men ages 18-24 are more likely than the general public to report using at least one prediction market, sportsbook, or daily fantasy sports app in the past six months (26% vs. 14%).
- Among Americans who have heard of prediction markets, the overwhelming majority view them as financially risky (91%), on par with investing in cryptocurrency (91%) and placing a sports bet (88%).
2. Most Americans and young men view betting platforms as closer to gambling.
- Sixty-one percent of Americans view event contracts on prediction markets as closer to gambling, compared to 8% who view them as closer to investing.
- While prediction markets are largely seen as gambling, this view is not as universal as it is for wagers placed on sportsbooks (84% gambling vs. 1% investing) and entries placed on daily fantasy sports apps (82% vs. 2%).
- Young men ages 18-24 are also more likely to say that prediction markets are closer to gambling (47%) than investing (10%), though their view is not as strong as the general public.
3. Few believe prediction markets are good for society; most believe regulation is a good idea.
- Just 4% of Americans and 7% of men ages 18-24 say that prediction markets are good for society, in line with views of both gambling in general (3% and 4%, respectively) and online sports betting (3% and 4%).
- Nearly two in five Americans (38%) view prediction markets as bad for society, while 34% say they are neither good nor bad. Similar proportions of men ages 18-24 hold these views (30% bad for society, 36% neither).
- Along these lines, just 9% of Americans are confident in the ability of prediction markets to prevent people with insider information from unfairly profiting, while 61% are not confident and 28% are unsure.
- In terms of regulation, a majority of Americans and men ages 18-24 believe it is a good idea for prediction markets to be regulated like online gambling (59% and 58%, respectively). Fewer, though still a large proportion of the population, also believe it is a good idea for prediction markets to be regulated like financial investing (52% and 48%).
- On the other hand, at least three in five Americans (66%) and young men (60%) believe it is a bad idea for there to be no regulation of prediction markets.
About the Study
This American Institute for Boys and Men poll was conducted February 27 – March 1, 2026, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 2,363 general population adults aged 18 or older. The poll includes an oversample of men ages 18-24, for a total of 447 interviews.
The study was conducted in English. The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, and household income. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2025 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS).
- Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45-59 and 60+)
- Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other, Non-Hispanic, Hispanic, 2+ Races, Non-Hispanic)
- Education (Less than High School, High School, Some College, Bachelor or higher)
- Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
- Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
- Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.14. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
[email protected]
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