Among Republicans, Trump leads the Republican primary, gaining ground since September

Washington DC, December 13, 2023—New Reuters/Ipsos polling finds that former President Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican primary among Republicans, about a month away from the Iowa caucus. When it comes to the general election, Trump and Biden tie among registered voters. The economy and reducing crime are the most important issues for Americans when it comes to determining how they will vote. Americans view Trump as stronger on these two issues than Biden.

Detailed findings:

1. Trump leads the Republican primary with Republicans, as the general election remains close among registered voters.

• Trump remains the favorite in the Republican primary among Republicans (61%), with a 10-point increase from the last survey in September (51%).
• Trump and Biden are locked in a dead heat among registered voters for the general election.
• When determining how they will vote, the most important issues for Americans are the economy (71%) and government efforts to reduce crime (65%).
• Americans feel Republicans and Trump perform better than both the Democratic party and Joe Biden on both the economy and government efforts to reduce crime. When asked about a range of issues, including crime and the economy, Trump outperforms the Republican party, and the Democratic party performs better than Biden.
• Half of Americans agree with the recent statement made by Trump referring to some Americans as vermin. This includes one-third of Democrats and independents.
• Few Americans, regardless of party, believe it is acceptable for someone in their political party to commit violence to achieve a political goal.
• Most Americans agree with some key principles of democracy. For example, three in four (73%) agree that they value the U.S. democratic process of elections, even if it means their party loses elections sometimes. Majorities of Democrats (85%), Republicans (75%), and independents (66%) agree.
• Sixty-five percent of Americans agree that the 2024 election will mark a turning point in American history far more significant than we have seen in recent decades. A similar share of Republicans (72%) and Democrats (71%) agree, though fewer independents do (49%).

2. Americans are mixed on domestic and international policies.

• Two in five Americans (41%) think the U.S. should continue to offer financial and military aid to Ukraine as it fights off a Russian invasion, with one in three (34%) thinking the U.S. should NOT do this and one in four (25%) not knowing what to think.
• Democrats (61%) are more likely than Republicans (32%) or independents (27%) to think that the U.S. should continue to offer financial and military aid to Ukraine.
• Half of Americans (52%) say they agree the U.S. should pass a law to legalize abortion nationwide, with 30% thinking the U.S. should NOT do this and 17% not being sure. Democrats (76%) and independents (53%) are more likely than Republicans (31%) to agree with this.

3. Republicans are much less likely than Democrats and independents to believe in some of the charges against Donald Trump.

• Fifty-five percent of Americans feel it is believable that Donald Trump solicited election fraud, with 24% of Republicans 84% of Democrats, and 63% of independents feeling this way.
• A similar share (55%) feel it is believable that Donald Trump tried to incite a mob to attack the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, to overturn the election results. There is wide disagreement by partisanship (23% of Republicans say it is believable vs. 88% of Democrats and 57% of independents).
• More Americans (61%) feel it is believable that Trump called state officials in an attempt to get them to change the 2020 election outcome in their state in an effort to stay president. About two in five Republicans (39%), 87% of Democrats, and 63% of independents agree.
• Americans are split in how believable it is that Joe Biden is being a good father by supporting his son Hunter, even while Hunter goes through legal troubles. A majority of Democrats find this believable (78%), with 49% of independents and 31% of Republicans agreeing.

About the Study

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between December 5-11, 2023 on behalf of Thomson Reuters. For this survey, a sample of 4,411 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample also includes 2,050 Democrats, 1,689 Republicans, and 481 independents.

The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2022 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, education and political party affiliation. 

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=4,411, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-3.3 percentage points).

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 5.5 percentage points for independents.   

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson.

Senior Vice President, U.S.

Public Affairs

[email protected]

Annaleise Azevedo Lohr

Director, U.S.

Public Affairs

[email protected]

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