AP/Ipsos CASH Index (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household)

Washington, DC -- The Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs CASH Index of consumer confidence stands at 79.1 in the latest poll, down significantly from 92.5 one month ago. One year ago, in February 2004, the CASH Index was 91.7.

Consumers Voice Lower Expectations For Future, Worries About Ability To Invest

The biggest declines in the CASH Index come on questions measuring expectations about the future of the economy and personal finances. The Expectations Index, which measures consumers' economic outlook for the next six months, is now 58.6, compared to 79.6 in January and 89.2 one year ago.

Over half (57%) of Americans think the economy in their area will be about the same in six months as it is now. And while optimists (27% stronger) continue to outnumber pessimists (15% weaker), the gap between the two has narrowed since January.

The Investment Index, which measures one's ability to save and invest for the future, is currently at 80, down a lot from where it was a year ago (90.3). Last month, the Investment Index was 92.3.

Consumers' anxiety comes through in terms of what they expect to save and what they expect to be able to spend. Continuing last month's trend, marginally more consumers feel less (47%) rather than more (43%) confident in their ability to invest in the future. Consumers are also less comfortable spending on major items and on household purchases.

View Of Current Conditions Darkens

The Current Conditions Index is 82.7, which is down from January (96.3) and below the level seen a year ago (89.2). Evaluations of the current state of the economy hold fairly steady from January, and there has not been much movement in evaluations of personal financial situations.

Jobs Index Remains In Positive Zone

The Jobs Index is consistently the most positive component of the CASH Index, and February is no exception. At 107.5, the Jobs Index is only down slightly from January (109.1) and is about even with that measure a year ago (108.2).

In spite of the current worries about future investment and spending, people remain relatively positive about the labor market. Reported experience of job loss remains consistent with past months, with about four in ten (39%) saying they or someone close to them has lost their job for economic reasons in the past six months. Also, half (51%) continue to think it unlikely they or someone close will become redundant in the next six months.

Yet when asked about their level of confidence in job security, significantly more now (47%) than a month ago (42%) say they are less confident, tying into the more negative expectations seen overall in this poll.

The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between February 7-9, 2005, the AP-Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults nationwide. The margin of error is +/- 3.1. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher.

The AP/Ipsos CASH Index is designed to provide a single, handy number that summarizes movement across an array of consumer attitudes, including current assessments and near-term expectations about the economy and personal finances, job security, confidence in the ability to save and invest for the future, and comfort level with making major purchases and other household purchases.

Ipsos CASH Index Surveys of consumers are conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos, a leading global survey-based market research group. The Ipsos Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) Index polls are conducted the first and third week of every month, as part of Ipsos-Public Affairs weekly omnibus polling service. The Ipsos CASH Index, started in January 2002, is a bimonthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of the local economy, personal financial situation and spending, saving and confidence to invest.

For more information about the Ipsos CASH Index or to receive this report on the first and third week of every month, please e-mail [email protected], or contact Brian Scanlon at 202.463.2146.

For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300

About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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