AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush And Kerry Remain In Dead Heat

Washington, D.C. -- As President George W. Bush prepares for the GOP convention later this month, the latest Associated Press/Ipsos Public Affairs poll shows that he is statistically tied with Democratic candidate John Kerry, and has as many supporters as detractors of his job so far as President. Moreover, Bush is facing a group of persuadable voters who are even more negative than the average toward his performance. Narrow Shifts Leave Presidential Race Tied The last AP/Ipsos poll, conducted after the Democratic National Convention, puts Bush-Cheney and Kerry-Edwards nearly even, with the two candidates and tickets running as closely as they have been each month since March (see the July 5-7 poll for Bush-Kerry trends). [+] click to enlarge Bush's support can be characterized along several lines:

• His strongest support comes from adults age 30-50 (51%), while he trails Kerry among those over age 50 and particularly those under age 30 (33% Bush - 59% Kerry).
• The suburban vote is tied, with suburban men supporting Bush (51%) and suburban women narrowly supporting Kerry (49%). Overall, however, there is very little gender gap.
• The biggest gap is between married and unmarried voters. Married men (53%) and women (52%) back Bush-Cheney, while unmarried men (56%) and women (58%) prefer Kerry-Edwards.
• Catholics are a key swing group, evenly divided between both candidates (48% Bush - 47% Kerry). This is despite the fact that Kerry is only the third Roman Catholic ever to run for President as the Democratic nominee.

Hardening Support For Each Candidate One thing that has changed is the intensity of support for each candidate. Compared to last month, supporters of both Bush-Cheney and Kerry-Edwards are more likely to say they will "definitely vote for" their candidates. [+] click to enlarge Bush voters are almost as firm as Kerry voters at this stage, and as a result, the number of strong Bush supporters approximately equals the number of strong Kerry voters, a big change since the last poll prior to the Democratic convention, when AP/Ipsos found 34% strong Bush voters and 27% strong Kerry voters. Can Kerry Swing The "Persuadables"? Overall, just over a third of registered voters can be described as "persuadables" - weak supporters of Bush or Kerry plus those who do not side with any candidate. Demographically, persuadable voters resemble registered voters, although with a slightly greater tendency to be under 30, non-white, and neither fundamentalist nor born-again Christian. While they are somewhat difficult to pin down demographically, their outlook on several key issues places them closer to the Democrats than Republicans. For instance, persuadables:

• Say the country is headed down the wrong track (64%).
• Disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy (56%) and other domestic issues (61%).
• Prefer Democratic (49%) to Republican (37%) control of Congress.

However, they are divided on Bush's overall job performance (46% approve, 51% disapprove), and his handling of foreign policy issues and the war on terrorism (51%-47%). In addition, while most persuadables say they voted in the 2000 election, they (84%) are somewhat less likely than registered voters overall (93%) to say it is very likely they will vote in the 2004 election. Kerry's Convention Focus Boost His Credibility On Security Bush's team will look at the current shape of the race and the profile of the persuadables to finalize their strategy for the Republican convention, just as Kerry made the choice to focus during the Democratic convention on his war record from over 30 years ago, rather than his current values or his plans for the economy. The effects of Kerry's focus show - he made great progress since March in terms of which candidate will better protect the U.S. (+8 points), but no progress on values (+1) or the ability to create jobs (+2). Now, thinking about some issues - no matter whom you might vote for in the presidential election... Another series taken before and after the Democratic convention shows that people are more likely now to describe Kerry as honest and likeable. He continues to be seen as intelligent - the one quality where he has a decisive advantage over Bush (63%) - but he is still seen as less decisive than Bush (68%). [+] click to enlarge The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between August 3-5, 2004, the AP/Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,001 adults nationwide, including 798 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for all adults, +/- 3.5 for registered voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher. To view the complete filled-in questionnaire for this survey, please download the Topline Results. To view the most recent Presidential Approval Ratings and Approval Ratings On Specific Issues, please click here. To view the most recent Consumer Attitudes & Political Measures chart, please click here. For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Ramon (CA), and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and reactions of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting and modeling and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2003, Ipsos generated global revenues of $644.2 million U.S. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP