AP/Ipsos Poll: Bush And Kerry Show Momentum As Campaign Gathers Pace

Washington, D.C.--The latest AP/Ipsos Public Affairs poll shows that while Bush has pulled slightly ahead of Kerry in the head-to-head race, both candidates have momentum. Bush is getting points from the electorate for an improving economic climate and for handing over power in Iraq. Kerry is strengthening support among his voters, and the addition of John Edwards to the Democratic ticket appears to have given him a boost in the South. Bush has taken a slim lead over Kerry in the July AP/Ipsos poll, after five months in which the two candidates have been running neck and neck. Bush has gained ground since last month among men under 45 (62% now, 52% in June) and also suburban women (52%, from 41%). Regionally, Bush's support in the Northeast has risen slightly (45%, from 38%). Americans are evenly divided on Bush's overall handing of the presidency, largely in keeping with polls taken over the course of the year. For explanations of the recent rise in support for Bush, it is better to look at his performance on specific policy areas. Approval of Bush's handling of the economy continues the advance it has made since March. At present, the public is split evenly, although with an increase in those who "strongly approve" of his economic policies (29%, from 23% in March). Increased economic optimism is also reflected in the Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) index, which has risen month-on-month since hitting a low in April this year (84.8; 92 now). This resurgence is being powered by the public's rising expectation of improved economic performance over the coming months. The outlook for jobs remains fairly stable. In addition, the public has also improved its view of Bush's handling of other domestic issues (46%, up from 41% in June and on par with 45% in March).

• For the first time, approval of Bush for his handling of the economy (49%) is on a par with approval for his handling of foreign policy and the war on terrorism (51%).
• At the extremes, strong approval of Bush's handling of the economy (29%) is on a par with strong disapproval (31%)--as recently as last month, far fewer voters gave strong approval (23%) than strong disapproval (30%) on his performance in handling the economy.
• On has handling of other domestic issues, fewer approve overall (46%) and at the extremes, only 20% strongly approve and 36% strongly disapprove his handling of health care, education, the environment and energy issues.
• People are more optimistic now than they were in May about job market prospects.

[+] click to enlarge [+] click to enlarge Another factor behind Bush's more positive ratings is his handling of the situation in Iraq (47% approve, 43% in June, 46% in May). The handover of power on June 28th appears to have given people confidence that progress is being made and that Bush is keeping his word on transferring responsibilities for governance to the Iraqis. [+] click to enlarge That said, not all the advantage in the current political climate is going to Bush. Although Bush still leads Kerry in the South (52% vs. 45%), Kerry has made some advances in the region since June (39%). Kerry's national support has remained stable, and nearly two-thirds of his backers now say they will "definitely" vote for him in November - up from 55% last month and placing Kerry's definite support on par with that for Bush. Note: Independent voters - who make up just 8% of all registered voters in this survey - have defected from Nader (9%, from 26% last month), with Independents now evenly split between Bush and Kerry. Kerry's selection of John Edwards as his running mate has been received positively, but without much of an immediate effect on levels of support. The differences between the findings from Monday and those from Tuesday and Wednesday, after the announcement was made, are statistically insignificant. Moreover, adding the vice-presidential candidates to the ticket has remarkably little effect on either overall support or strength of support. [+] click to enlarge The shift toward Bush in this poll is evident even despite the continuing preference for Democratic control of Congress observed since March this year, and the prevailing view that the country is headed down the wrong track. The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between July 5-7, 2004, the AP/Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults nationwide, including 804 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for all adults, +/- 3.5 for registered voters. Margin of error for subgroups may be higher. To view the complete filled-in questionnaire for this survey, please download the Topline Results. To view the most recent Presidential Approval Ratings and Approval Ratings On Specific Issues, please click here. To view the most recent Consumer Attitudes & Political Measures chart, please click here. For more information on this press release, please contact: Janice Bell Director, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research but often elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Ramon (CA), and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization, and conducts the young voters poll for Newsweek.com. Ipsos Public Affairs is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and reactions of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world. Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting and modeling and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2003, Ipsos generated global revenues of $644.2 million U.S. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP