The Associated Press/Ipsos CASH Index: Consumer Confidence Increases

Washington, DC, (AP)- Consumer confidence rebounded over the past month as Americans felt better about their current financial situations as well as the economy's prospects in the months ahead. The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between March 1-3, 2004, the AP/Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults nationwide, including 771 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for all adults, +/- 3.5 for registered voters. The AP-Ipsos consumer confidence index rose to 97.7 this week. That's an improvement from a reading of 91.7 in early February when consumer confidence took a hit, weighed down particularly by concerns about economic conditions down the road. The early March reading of 97.7, when compared to the same month a year ago, highlights just how far consumers have come. A year ago, as the war in Iraq broke out, consumer confidence sank to 61.4, the lowest reading recorded since Ipsos started the index in January 2002. The AP-Ipsos confidence index is benchmarked to a 100 reading. At the beginning of last year, the economy still was struggling to regain its footing after it was struck by the 2001 recession. It wasn't until the second half of 2003 that the economy began to stage a material rebound. A measure of consumers' feelings about current conditions, especially their own personal finances, showed the sharpest over-the-month increase of four sub-indexes. That "current conditions" gauge increased to 96.8 in early March, compared with 89.2 in early February. Consumers may be feeling better in part because they have gotten a tax refund or they anticipate getting one, Zandi suggested. Improvements in the stock market also may be a factor, other economists said. "The key to whether consumers stayed engaged or whether they pull back in terms of spending is up to the future of the job market," said Zandi. So far, consumers have continued to keep their pocketbooks and wallets sufficiently open to help along the economy - even as the labor market has remained fairly lackluster. Slow job growth has been a sore spot for President Bush as Democrats have seized upon it this election year as evidence of what they believe to be Bush's poor handling of the economy. But Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is optimistic that job growth, which has been poking along, will speed up. "We could get a pop in employment at any time," Greenspan said last week. [+] click to enlarge [+] click to enlarge [+] click to enlarge The AP/Ipsos CASH Index is designed to provide a single, handy number that summarizes movement across an array of consumer attitudes, including current assessments and near-term expectations about the economy and personal finances, job security, confidence in the ability to save and invest for the future, and comfort level with making major purchases and other household purchases. Ipsos CASH Index Surveys of consumers are conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos, a leading global survey-based market research group. The Ipsos Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household (CASH) Index polls are conducted the first and third week of every month, as part of Ipsos-Public Affairs weekly omnibus polling service. The Ipsos CASH Index, started in January 2002, is a bimonthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of the local economy, personal financial situation and spending, saving and confidence to invest.

For more information about the Ipsos CASH Index or to receive this report on the first and third week of every month, please e-mail [email protected], or contact Brian Scanlon at 202.463.2146. For more information on this press release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs, headquartered in Washington D.C., is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research company made up of campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations based not only on public opinion research, but often elite stakeholder, corporate and media opinion research. It has offices in New York City, Chicago, San Ramon (CA), and Washington, with affiliates around the world. Ipsos Public Affairs also conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based research firm. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos-na.com/news/pa About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research group, with revenues of 538.5 million euros in 2002. It offers a full suite of research services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies in advertising, marketing, public opinion and customer loyalty research, as well as forecasting and modeling. Member companies also offer a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP