The Associated Press/Ipsos Poll: Bush Has Solid Base

Washington, DC - President George W. Bush enjoys an 8-point advantage on the question of his re-election, with 41% of registered voters definitely planning to vote for his re-election and only 33% definitely planning to vote for someone else. One-in-four voters (26%) are in the middle, only thinking about voting for someone else, or not sure. The Associated Press Poll is conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Between January 5-7, 2004, the AP/Ipsos poll interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 adults nationwide, including 774 registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 for all adults, +/- 3.6 for registered voters. [+] click to enlarge Bush is doing well because he has firmed up his base. On the other side, the Democrats, who will begin this month to settle on a nominee, have no single candidate behind whom they can rally. Bush's Demographic Strength Overall, 76% of Republicans will definitely vote for Bush, and 61% of Democrats will definitely vote for someone else. Independents are trending in Bush's favor right now, with 32% definitely planning to vote to re-elect Bush, 37% saying they are considering voting for someone else, only 23% of Independents definitely planning to vote for someone else. In the so-called Red States Bush won in 2000 by a 6-point margin or better over Gore, 51% now definitely plan to vote to re-elect Bush, only 29% in the Red States definitely plan to vote for someone else, for a +22 percentage point Bush margin. By comparison, in the Blue States Gore won by a 6-point margin or better over Bush, fully 34% definitely plan to vote to re-elect Bush, almost as many as the 37% of voters in those Democratic-leaning states who definitely plan to vote for someone else. Bush's standing is almost as strong in those Democratic-leaning Blue States, at this stage, as it is in the swing Battleground States that saw close Presidential election results in 2000: 39% definitely re-elect, 26% consider someone else, 33% definitely will vote for someone else among voters in Battleground States. Bush has an overall advantage of 8 percentage points among all registered voters (41% definitely re-elect vs. 33% definitely someone else), but a margin of 20 points or more among: white fundamentalists (+41, 60%-19%); men (+23, 49%-26%), especially suburban men (+30, 51%-21%), white men (+29, 52%-23%) and men with less than a 4-year college degree (+28, 50%-22%). Bush's lead exceeds 20 percentage points among voters in the South (+22, 50%-28%) and the Great Plains and Mountain states (+23, 47%-24%). Bush trails among women (-5, 34%-39%), especially women voters under age 45 (-10, 32%-42%), and women with college degrees (-13, 31%-44%). Bush also trails in the Northeast (-14, 29%-43%) and the Great Lakes states (-12, 28%-40%). For more information, please contact: Thomas Riehle President, Ipsos Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos Public Affairs Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, public affairs company made up of veteran campaign and political polling veterans as well as seasoned research professionals. The company conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of Canadian, American, and international organizations based not only on public opinion research, but often elite stakeholder, corporate and media opinion research. Ipsos Public Affairs also conducts national and international public opinion polling on behalf of the The Associated Press, the world's oldest and largest news organization. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based research firm. Visit us at: www.ipsos-pa.com About Ipsos Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research group, with revenues of 538.5 million euros in 2002. It offers a full suite of research services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies in advertising, marketing, public opinion and customer loyalty research, as well as forecasting and modeling. Member companies also offer a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP