Beijing Olympics Will Be a Tough Sell with the U.S.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 16) - Americans are skeptical of Beijing as the choice of the International Olympic Committee to be host city for the 2008 Summer Olympics, and a significant minority would even consider a boycott of these Olympic Games if China's human rights record does not improve. The choice of Beijing was announced Friday in the U.S., and according to a weekend poll of a representative sample of 1000 adults nationwide, it is a decision that 59% of Americans rate negatively. The margin of error is +/- 3.1%. Interviews were conducted Friday, July 13 through Sunday, July 15.

"The International Olympic Committee has given itself a very tough challenge in trying to sell the choice of Beijing to people in the U.S. Most Americans don't like the choice. Specifically, they feel it was a bad choice because it rewards China's poor human rights record rather than a good choice because it might serve to promote reform in China. Even greater numbers of Americans express little or no confidence that China will improve its record on human rights as a result of having been selected to host the Olympics," reports Thomas Riehle, President of U.S. Public Affairs at Ipsos-Reid, the independent, global polling firm, which paid for and conducted the poll.

"There may even develop a movement to boycott the 2008 Olympics. Most people don't want another boycott, even if China fails to substantially improve its human rights record, but a boycott is not totally out of the question. Some already support a boycott in the worst-case scenario of Chinese refusal to make changes," Riehle said.

According to the Ipsos-Reid poll:

Fewer than one-in-ten Americans consider Beijing an excellent choice, and almost three-in-five give it negative marks (59% rate it an only fair or poor choice). Two-thirds of people age 45 and older (68%) give the choice negative marks, as do half (50%) of adults under age 45.

Boycott talk is premature, Americans say, but a significant minority would consider that option in a worst-case scenario. Even in the worst case scenario, in which China fails to make any real human rights changes over the next seven years, only 36% of Americans would support a U.S. boycott, and 59% would not. Particularly opposed are men (65%) and Republicans (62%). Even among those who rate the choice of Beijing negatively, only 40% favor a boycott in the worst case, as of today, and 57% oppose it.

Toronto would have been the first choice of almost half (46%) of all Americans, far outpacing Paris (which places second), Beijing, Osaka and Istanbul. Paris generates a gender gap, with 23% of women but only 14% of men preferring Paris. Preference for Toronto is greatest among American adults in the regions where Toronto is more accessible--to Americans in the Northeast (53% make Toronto their first choice) and the Midwest (51%). Preference for Toronto is lower where Toronto is further away, in the South (40%) and West (43%).

When asked to specifically focus on the politics of the choice (setting aside the issue of whether Beijing can handle the logistics of hosting an Olympics), half (55%) assess this as a bad choice rewarding bad behavior on human rights, rather than a good choice that could promote reform and a new opening of China to the world. Republicans (61%) and adults age 45 and older (60%) are especially negative. Few (35%) have much confidence that China will improve its human rights record. Among those who think Beijing was an excellent or good choice, 64% have at least some confidence that China will improve its human rights record as a result of getting the games. Among those who think Beijing was an only fair or poor choice, 81% say they have little or no confidence that China will change its behavior.

The IPSOS-REID EXPRESS POLL, with a representative sample of 1000 adults nationwide, was conducted by telephone Friday, July 13 through Sunday, July 15, 2001. Margin of error: +/- 3.1%

Which ONE would you choose as the best place to hold the 2008 Olympics?

160	All Adults	Democrats	Independents	Republicans	Men	Women
Toronto	46	46	39	49	46	46
Paris	19	19	16	20	14	23
Beijing	17	19	22	13	20	14
Osaka	9	6	10	10	11	7
Istanbul	4	6	3	3	4	4
Not sure	6	4	11	6	5	7

160	All Adults	Under Age 45	Age 45 and Over	Consider Beijing an Excellent/ Good Choice	Consider Beijing an Only Fair/ Poor Choice
Toronto	46	44	48	32	56
Paris	19	21	16	16	21
Beijing	17	16	18	36	6
Osaka	9	11	7	9	9
Istanbul	4	4	4	4	5
Not sure	6	4	8	3	5

Setting aside the ability of Beijing to handle the Olympic games, which of these two statements comes closer to your view of the political implications of this decision?

160	All Adults	Democrats	Independents	Republicans	Men	Women
Beijing is a good choice because holding the Olympics there will bring China closer to other nations and promote reform in China	40	42	48	35	40	40
Beijing is a bad choice because holding the Olympics there rewards China even though its government has not addressed what some see as significant human rights violations	55	54	44	61	57	54
Not sure	5	4	8	4	3	7

160	All Adults	Under Age 45	Age 45 and Over	Consider Beijing an Excellent/ Good Choice	Consider Beijing an Only Fair/ Poor Choice
Beijing is a good choice because holding the Olympics there will bring China closer to other nations and promote reform in China	40	45	34	77	18
Beijing is a bad choice because holding the Olympics there rewards China even though its government has not addressed what some see as significant human rights violations	55	51	60	18	80
Not sure	5	4	6	5	2

Now that Beijing, China has the Games, how much confidence do you have that the Chinese government will take steps to improve its human rights record?

160	All Adults	Democrats	Independents	Republicans	Men	Women
Very confident	5	6	6	3	5	5
Somewhat confident	30	31	35	28	28	32
Not too confident	31	30	29	34	30	33
Not at all confident	31	31	22	34	37	26
Not sure	3	1	8	1	1	4

160	All Adults	Under Age 45	Age 45 and Over	Consider Beijing an Excellent/ Good Choice	Consider Beijing an Only Fair/ Poor Choice
Very confident	5	5	6	11	2
Somewhat confident	30	36	24	53	16
Not too confident	31	31	31	25	36
Not at all confident	31	25	37	9	46
Not sure	3	3	2	3	1

Suppose that in the next 7 years, China does not take steps to improve its record on human rights. In that case, do you believe the United States should boycott the 2008 Summer Olympic games, or not?

160	All Adults	Democrats	Independents	Republicans	Men	Women
US should boycott	36	39	29	34	33	39
Should NOT boycott	59	57	62	62	65	54
Not sure	5	4	10	3	2	7

160	All Adults	Under Age 45	Age 45 and Over	Consider Beijing an Excellent/ Good Choice	Consider Beijing an Only Fair/ Poor Choice
US should boycott	36	39	32	32	40
Should NOT boycott	59	57	62	64	57
Not sure	5	3	6	5	4