Cliff's Take: Big Government Forever?
We reached an important milestone yesterday: Biden’s first 100 days in office. Things look very different now than they did back on January 20th, Biden’s first day.
More than half the country is vaccinated. Though we’re still in recovery mode, Americans are ever more optimistic about where the economy is headed. And, Biden’s stimulus package—unprecedented in size and scope—was met with widespread approval, with even a majority of Republicans on board.
As we heard in Biden’s joint address to Congress on Wednesday night, he does not plan to stop there, with new plans in the works.
But think of the numbers involved. The tab for the stimulus plan is around $2 trillion; then add on another potential $2.25 trillion for the proposed American Jobs Plan and $1.8 trillion for the American Families Plan.
Remember that the federal debt-to-GDP ratio was already 129% by the last fiscal quarter of 2020. Compare that to the historic average of 59%.
The underlying message: Big government is back. But is it back for good? Biden would argue yes. But does America agree? Some do; some don’t. There is a thread deep in the American soul that abhors central authority; let’s not forget that.
Below are the most relevant polling data of the week.
- Lone Ranger Nation? Americans prefer the “live free or die” ethos. Or so the conventional wisdom would have it. But America is a little more nuanced than that. When times get bad, we want government in our lives. Seems like Hobbes at play Humans want stability in the face of anarchy. Who can provide that? The government.
- Divided: Big vs. small. One of the eternal debates in America is the role of government: “It should do more!” versus “No, it should do less!” But the data is clear. On this question, there is still a deep societal cleavage, dividing the red team and blue team in America. We might have forgotten about this chasm in public opinion during the pandemic, but it has not forgotten us.
- To cut or tax? Back to Biden. Big government requires big money. Who will foot the bill for these big plans—stimulus and infrastructure—in the making? As Biden put it on Wednesday, the wealthiest will need to “start paying their fair share.” Does American agree? Not universally.
- Divided nation. Well, at least we can all agree on something: America is a divided nation. This presents a different picture from the optimism we feel in the air as COVID subsides, but it is a reminder of the challenges looking ahead. Some partisan differences to note: Democrats are more optimistic than Republicans.
- Health comes first. Stepping aside from the larger debate, I’d like to highlight a COVID-adjacent polling point of the week. To wit, we are all humans, and we need physical interaction with others. That, perhaps, is what we missed the most during the pandemic. But once restrictions lift, if we had to choose, we would prioritize going to see the doc in person. Health is most important; then the rest.
So, what’s the takeaway? Biden is counting on going big enough to make a tangible impact on people’s lives. As we know, a vision this grand comes with a similarly steep price tag.
In all this are we seeing an effort that harkens back to FDR’s New Deal? Or something less permanent? Don’t know. But we will see.
Be safe, be sane.
For more information, please contact:
Clifford Young
President, U.S.
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2016
[email protected]
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