Cliff’s Take: Buckle Up

Only three more days to count day. Wow! We are almost there. Or are we?

The vote counting might very well last into next week. All the talk is how this will only delay concession from one side. I, however, believe there will be more clarity on the night of November 3^rd than most think. We will see.

As a professional forecaster, the single biggest challenge is not to make the prediction but how to communicate the certainty (or uncertainty) that one has about that estimate. In my opinion, our collective flaw in 2016 was not the poll as a scientific tool but instead our interpretation of the signals.  Ultimately, we were unable to incorporate and adjust our summary judgment about the outcome. 

Put simply, the signals were mixed.  Our base rate model suggested a Trump, not Clinton, win and the polls were narrowing in the key swing states all throughout October. Such signals should have given us pause. They didn’t.

This brings us to 2020.  So, what will happen?

In this weekly note, I have consistently emphasized that the polls and the context favor Biden. But Trump, as an incumbent with relatively strong approval ratings in the swing states, isn’t down for the count.  Mixed signals to say the least. Such contradictions, however, are more attenuated than in 2016, but they remain nonetheless. 

What say I?  Biden is more likely to win than Trump.  There even is a significant non-zero chance of a Biden blow out. This said, there is still hope for Trump, if only a glimmer.

Below are the most relevant polling numbers of the week:

1. Polls matter now. I have repeatedly warned to not be overly reliant on the horse race polls. But with less than a week to go we see how they become more robust gauges on the future. See the data below! Ever the skeptic, my credo remains “trust but verify!” Watch those swing state trends in the last days. 

    

2. The bottom holds. The story in the last month in 2016 was a consistent and real narrowing of the polls. Clinton lost steam as Trump caught wind.  We don’t see that this year.  Look at the data below. Not only is there no narrowing but Biden holds a larger lead than Clinton. This stability is an important signal.  Stability favors Biden. 

    

3. Coronavirus, coronavirus, coronavirus. Again, everything is about the coronavirus. It has shaped our lives and clouded our perspective. Biden has consistently led Trump on this ever so important topic. In 2016, Trump and Clinton were dead even on the issue of the day, jobs and the economy. But 2020 might have taught us one important lesson—you can’t spin a virus.  We will see. 

    

4. Bipartisan majority legitimacy. There is a lot of doubt about the day after the election. How will America pick itself up and put the pieces back together? The data below is at least reassuring.  Majority support of whomever wins. The operative word is acceptance, not love. 

    

5. Trump’s wrench. Trump is the wild card here. If he hesitates to concede, things could drag on.  He has a majority (even if ever so small) of Republicans that would go along with him.  The anticipation is nerve-wracking. 

    

For a synthesis of the above, listen to my most recent chat with the Morning Briefing’s Tim Farley.

For more information, please contact:

Clifford Young
President, U.S.
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2016
[email protected]

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