Cliff’s Take: Could Trump’s Positive Coronavirus Test Influence The Race?

Only 31 days until the election. The pace is relentless. First Trump’s tax returns came to light; the nation witnessed a presidential debate more like a MMA cage match than a gentlemanly conversion; and Trump tested positive for COVID. Wow, what a week!  

Any one of these facts could have been the tagline. But that’s the secret to our collective special sauce called 2020. Everything happens at once – allegations of corruption, politicizing the pandemic, election phonics, COVID health – with no time to pause and regroup.

I want to wish the President and the First Lady a quick recovery.  As we all know, the virus is a wicked, cunning creature that leaves its mark in unforeseen ways. From this point forward, hopefully we can find our shared humanity through our common enemy—the coronavirus.  Our politics have undoubtedly clouded this simple truth.    

Below are what I see as the most relevant polling data points of the week.

1. Testing positive. The new question du jour – what’s the electoral effect of Trump’s positive test? My most visceral, lizard brain response is that it will be net neutral—assuming the President fully recovers. We should all be looking out for a possible rally around the flag effect here. But assuming there is one, will it last? If we go into the empirical treasure chest, we can look to Boris Johnson in the UK and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro as past proof points. Both showed improved polling numbers after their diagnosis. But beware! Correlation is not causation. 

    

2. Listening to Dr. Trump. The COVID agenda will increasingly include vaccines as the primary issue.  Americans believe they are the ticket to our return to normality.  Our most recent Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index shows that only 37% of Americans are likely to take a first-generation dose. The likelihood increases to 62% if our family doctor recommends. Trump leads from behind at 19%; he even trails Americans paying $100 bucks out-of-pocket for the vaccine! When it comes to our health, we trust the experts, not politicians. 

    

3. The irreverent champion. Among analysts and pundits, the collective sense was that the presidential debate was a debacle. Most of the scorn fell on Trump and his truculent, aggressive, irreverent style. But really? Look at the data below. Remember Trump is the anti-establishment’s cage fighter after all. Breaking the rules, disrespecting elites, calling out the “deep state” – Trump’s populist base revels in these sorts of missives. Maybe not a winning debate strategy, but as Rush Limbaugh suggested, at least it was a strategy.

    

4. Fight night. Leading up to the debate, Trump trailed Biden in the polls—both at the national level and in the key swing states. Trump needed a debate knock-out and tried this with intense fury.  Biden had to remain composed and presidential and for the most part did—only with the occasional gaffe or “clown” quip. Our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos post-debate survey suggests that Biden won the debate; other polls show the same.  Look at the data. In the match between truculence and relative serenity, the latter won. 

    

5. But ultimately, it's a wash. Let’s be clear, debates typically have little to no impact on the numbers. Our FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos pre- and post-debate polls underscore this. There is no movement on likelihood to vote for a given candidate. Much like COVID on politics—everything but nothing changes.  Biden led Trump before the debate and does so today.

    

For a summary of this week’s polls, listen to my most recent interview with Morning Briefing's Tim Farley.  As always, be safe and sane.