October 2019 Index Shows Continued Decline in Global Consumer Confidence
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Washington, DC, October 23, 2019 — At 48.8, October 2019’s Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index is down 0.6 points over the past month, 1.4 points over the past three months of the year, and at its lowest level in more than two years.
Amid heightened trade-related tensions, consumer confidence has dropped more markedly in four of the world’s five largest economies over the past three months than it has globally. It is the case in the United States (by 1.9 points), mainland China (by 4.9 points), Germany (by 2.3 points) and India (by 5.4 points). Other markets that have seen a significant decline during that same period include: Spain (by 5.0 points), Italy (by 3.5 points), Mexico (by 2.4 points), Australia (by 1.9 points), South Africa (by 1.8 points), Belgium (by 1.7 points), and Canada (by 1.6 points). Among the 24 countries surveyed, only South Korea (+2.2) sees a significant three-month gain in its National Index.
The Consumer Confidence Index, also called the “National Index,” reflects consumer attitudes on the current and future state of their local economy, their personal finance situations, their savings and their confidence to make large investments. Mainland China continues to enjoy the highest National Index with a score of 69.3, followed by Saudi Arabia (63.6), the United States (60.7), and India (59.3). At the opposite end of the spectrum, Turkey stands at the bottom of the National Index with a score of 36.6, followed by Argentina (38.3) and South Africa (38.3).
About the Study
These findings are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 markets via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, South Africa; and age 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.
Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, China*, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.
Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Refinitiv/Ipsos online surveys is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. Please click on this link for more information on credibility intervals.
