Consumer confidence still increasing despite U.S. Capitol riot and surge in jobless claims
Washington, DC, January 14, 2021 — Reaching levels of optimism last seen in late September, overall consumer sentiment indexes at 54.5 in this week’s Ipsos-Forbes Advisor U.S. Consumer Confidence Tracker, an increase of 1 point from the week prior.
The Current index, indicative of sentiment about today’s economic environment, and the Investment index both post their highest readings of the pandemic. In contrast Jobs confidence wavers slightly as first-time unemployment claims soared to 965,000, the largest weekly total since late August.
Despite the riot at the U.S. Capitol and the volatile political climate, consumer sentiment remains nearly unchanged among Republicans (indexing at 57.3) while it is up 1.1 points among Democrats to 55.0, their highest reading since March.
However, consumer sentiment is uneven across socio-economic lines as affluent, employed, and retired Americans continue to indicate greater levels of optimism about the economy than do those who are in a low-income bracket or unemployed. This week, those with a household income of $100,000 or more index at 60.9 (up 0.4 from last week), while those with a household income of less than $50,000 index at 46.9 (down 1.9 points). The sentiment gap between these two groups has now widened to 14 points from only 4 points back at the onset of the pandemic.
Read the full story from Forbes Advisor here.
Learn more about the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices via the interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators (IpsosGlobalIndicators.com) including graphic comparisons, trended data and all the questions on which they are based.
Detailed Findings
1. Scoring at 54.5, the latest overall Consumer Confidence rose 1 point from last week.
- The Confidence index is currently 4.9 points above the pandemic average and 5.6 points lower than where it stood in early March (60.1).
2. The Current and Investment sub-indices are at their highest readings since the inception of the tracker in March 2020, now sitting at 47.4 and 51.5, respectively.
- The Expectations index, indicative of Americans’ outlook about their financial situation, local economy, and employment, is at 65.3, ticking up 1.6 points from last week. It is now on par with levels last seen in late October, just before the November election.
3. Jobs confidence fell half a point following the surge in new unemployment claims. It is the only index to post a decline, even though slight, this week.
- The proportion of Americans reporting they, a family member, or a personal acquaintance lost their job in the past six months due to economic conditions is at 43%, up 2 points from last week.
- In addition, 46% say it’s likely they, a family member or a personal acquaintance will lose their job in the next six months due to economic conditions, unchanged from last week.
4. More Americans foresee a quick economic recovery once pandemic restrictions are lifted, climbing 4 points from last week.
5. Even as the death count in the United States continues to climb, more Americans this week agree that we should restart the economy regardless of virus containment (50%, up 5 points from last week).
6. Purchasing confidence for both major items and other household items are at their highest points since the beginning of the pandemic:
- Compared to six months ago, 44% say they are more comfortable making a major purchase like a home or a car, consistent with last week.
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Compared to six months ago, 49% say they are more comfortable making other household purchases now, up two points from last week.
Questions
The data used for the Consumer Confidence index and sub-indices is based on the following questions:
- Now, thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in US? Is it… very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
- Rate the current state of the economy in your local area using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means a very strong economy today and 1 means a very weak economy.
- Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
- Rate your current financial situation, using a scale from 1 to 7, where 7 means your personal financial situation is very strong today and 1 means it is very weak
- Looking ahead six months from now, do you expect your personal financial situation to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less comfortable making other household purchases?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident about job security for yourself, your family and other people you know personally?
- Compared to 6 months ago, are you NOW more or less confident of your ability to invest in the future, including your ability to save money for your retirement or your children’s education?
- Thinking of the last 6 months, have you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally lost their job as a result of economic conditions?
- Now look ahead at the next six months. How likely is it that you, someone in your family or someone else you know personally will lose their job in the next six months as a result of economic conditions?
Additional questions
Q. To what extent do you agree with the each of the following
- The economy will recover quickly once the restrictions to control the coronavirus pandemic are relaxed.
- We should restart the economy and allow businesses to open even if the virus is still not fully contained.
About the Study
These findings are based on data from an Ipsos survey conducted January 12-13, 2021 with a sample of 912 adults aged 18-74 from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii who were interviewed online in English.
The sample was randomly drawn from Ipsos’ online panel, partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing a sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2016 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, race/ethnicity, region, and education.
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online non-probability polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for all respondents. Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=912, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=+/-5.2 percentage points).
Findings from previous time periods going back to March 2011 are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform with the same questions. For the PCSI survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 1,000+ U.S. adults aged 18-74. The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month consist of a “Primary Index” based on 10 questions available upon request and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 10 questions. Those sub-indices include a Current Index, an Expectations Index, an Investment Index and a Jobs Index.
Findings for January 2002- February 2011 are based on data from the RBC CASH Index, a monthly telephone survey of 1,000 U.S. adults aged 18 and older conducted by Ipsos with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 202 420 2025
[email protected]
Kate Silverstein
Media Relations Specialist, U.S., Public Affairs
Ipsos
+1 718 755-8829
[email protected]
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