Some Americans Want to Trade in the Ballot Box for the Mailbox This November

What you need to know:

• Americans are feeling somewhat less certain about voting during a pandemic.
• There is high bipartisan support for requiring mail-in ballots for the general election.
• Partisanship is only somewhat seeping into this issue, making a minority (29%) of Republicans less likely to support voting by mail because of the coronavirus.

Campaigns have swapped rallies and sweeping speeches for Zoom calls and podcasts, turning an already historic presidential election year on its head, as candidates and voters grapple with how to manage a major election amid a pandemic.

Looking beyond some of the awkward phases of campaigning, what will decision day 2020 look like come November?

Right now, many Americans are hoping to trade the ballot box for mailboxes as mail-in voting becomes more desirable than congregating in large, often cramped in-person polling stations. Reuters/Ipsos polling from the beginning of April finds that 72% of Americans are in favor of requiring mail-in ballots for the general election, while a sizeable minority (42%) would favor postponing the election to a specific date in the future – an unprecedented move.

While there are partisan divides here, the large majority on both sides support mail in ballots with about eight in ten Democrats supporting the initiative, and 43% strongly supporting it. While about 65% of Republicans favor that measure, only about 28% strongly support it.

These results are consistent with findings pre-coronavirus. Polling that Ipsos conducted with C-SPAN back in September found that mail-in ballots enjoyed wide bipartisan support then too, with six in ten U.S. adults backing reforming the voting process in this way.

Though Americans favor mail-in voting now, the contours of that support may change if the issue becomes more polarized during a heated presidential election. Only about one in five (21%) people voted by mail in the last presidential election, according to the Census. A non-issue for most Americans, voting methods are getting a political spin during the pandemic by figures, like the President, who incorrectly claims voting by mail is prone to fraud.

Republicans say they have lost the most trust in the initiative so far. A Newsy/Ipsos poll from the middle of April found that three in ten Republicans are less likely to support mail-in initiatives because of the coronavirus.

So far, Wisconsin was the first test case for voting during a pandemic. At the beginning of April, 80% of ballots cast in Wisconsin were absentee compared to just 10% of people voting absentee in the 2016 presidential primary. Ohio followed suit last week wrapping up absentee-only primary and state elections. New York courts ruled today that the state elections at the end of June can’t be cancelled.

While states have some flexibility legislating how to run elections, Election Day is a not something they can easily move. Reuters/Ipsos polling found that, if the coronavirus were still spreading in November people were less certain about voting. About 55% of people said that they would certainly vote in November, regardless of coronavirus, a number that changed very little throughout April.

Vote certainty drops by about six to eight points when respondents are presented with the possibility of coronavirus still spreading in November, something that holds up by party as well.

To make elections fair, reliable, and trustworthy given the uncertainty coronavirus poses to American voting infrastructure, the non-partisan Brennan Center for Justice recommends outfitting polling stations to accommodate CDC protocols for social distancing; expand early voting; role out a universal vote-by-mail option; modify voter registration and preparation stations, including online registration; and educate voters on these changes to prevent manipulation from bad actors.

Outside of non-partisan groups emphasizing the importance of secure voting at such a vulnerable and tense moment for many Americans, people on both sides of the aisle are taking up that mantle as well. Many Democratic lawmakers have come out in support of vote-by-mail operations. Though some partisan gaps linger, Republican Governor Mike DeWine of Ohio rolled out an entire absentee election last week while the Republicans for the Rule of Law debuted a $1 million ad buy on Fox News to encourage support for voting by mail.

At a time when most Americans view everyday chores like going to the grocery store as a high risk, taking steps to make voting safe is essential during this crisis, though partisanship could still get in the way.