Cost of living concerns will loom large in the midterms

There’s a disconnect between headline macroeconomic numbers and how Americans feel about the economy.

Inflation has stabilized. But with prices remaining far above pre-pandemic levels, polling shows that many households are still feeling the burden of higher costs.

This dynamic will have ramifications come 2026. The economy, the cost of living, and inflation were all major themes of the 2024 election. New Reuters/Ipsos data shows that, if the 2026 midterms were held today, those three themes would all remain top of mind for Americans when deciding how to vote.

Below are five charts on the issues that will play the biggest role in the 2026 midterms.

1. Cost of living looms large. If the midterms were held today, the issues that would motivate how Americans vote look roughly the same as it did in 2024. For Democrats, “protecting democracy” will be the dominant issue, followed by the cost of living. For Republicans and independents, the cost of living looms the largest.

2. Consumer confidence never rebounded. Sometimes, CPI numbers don’t tell the full story. There has been a divide between the way Americans feel about the economy and the macroeconomic numbers on jobs and inflation. Consumer confidence has been stuck in a middling position, even as the rate of inflation has recovered.

3. Remains a Republican advantage. The Republican advantage on the economy during the 2024 Election cycle was a key driver in their electoral success. Even though some voters are dissatisfied with the direction the cost of living is currently headed, the economy and the cost of living remain a solid Republican advantage at the national level.

4. Policies that address cost of living have majority support. This holds true across partisan lines, except for policies that tilt “progressive.” Regardless, the message is clear: Americans want to see more action on the cost of living.

5. The appetite for outsiders hasn’t been fully satiated. The desire for outsider candidates is stronger among Republicans but is clearly present across the political spectrum. Americans aren’t afraid to look for outside-the-box solutions to help fix things.

Although the 2026 midterm elections are a year away, the political landscape that will define them is starting to shape up.

And that issue landscape looks surprisingly similar to last year’s issue landscape.

As things stand now, Republicans are in an advantageous situation. However, general dissatisfaction with today’s economy and the popularity of some Democratic policies aimed at curbing the cost of living could open a lane for Democrats come 2026. Watch this space.