U.S. 2024 election
In the aftermath of former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's guilty verdict, what can we tell about the impact the verdict might have on the 2024 presidential race? Most horserace polls haven’t shifted significantly. But what about the indicators that typically have some predictive power when it comes to presidential elections? Here are five charts on how indicators like presidential approval and betting odds have (or haven’t) changed post-conviction.
Trump guilty verdict makes minimal impact on public opinion
The latest ABC News/Ipsos poll finds that by a 2 to 1 majority Americans believe the guilty verdict in the falsifying business records case against Donald Trump was correct. This survey, launched the Friday after the verdict was announced, sees a similar amount of Americans believe that Donald Trump should end his presidential campaign because of the verdict and that he intentionally did something illegal. However, almost half of Americans also believe that the charges were politically motivated, and perceptions of Donald Trump (and Joe Biden) are statistically unchanged from before the verdict was announced, suggesting minimal changes in how Americans feel about the two presidential candidates.
Majority believe prosecution of Donald Trump upheld rule of law, not motivated by politics
The latest survey from Reuters/Ipsos, which began fielding following the announcement of a guilty verdict in the New York criminal trial against Donald Trump regarding hush money payments, shows that a majority of Americans believe the prosecution was about upholding the rule of law and not politically motivated. Donald Trump and Joe Biden remain locked in a close race for the 2024 presidential election. Following the conviction, a small, but not insignificant number, of Republicans say they will not vote for Trump with a felony conviction. One in five Americans say the recently concluded trial of Donald Trump has positively impacted their view of the American criminal justice system, while a quarter say it has negatively impacted their perceptions.
How much of an impact could the war in Gaza have on the election?
Right now, the main issue landscape is mixed, with the economy in particular dragging down Biden’s approval ratings and throwing a sense of malaise around the public’s relationship to his presidency. But the economy and inflation aren’t necessarily the issues making front page headlines every week. What has been front and center for many is the war in Gaza. Is that good for Biden politically? That’s not what it seems. Will this be the X factor in the 2024 election? Nationally, at least, it doesn’t look like it. Below are five charts on inflation, the war in Gaza and what these two issues might mean for the 2024 election.
Most Americans say the economy and inflation are the most important issues determining who they will support for president in November
New ABC News/Ipsos polling finds that President Biden’s approval rating hovers in the mid-to-high 30’s, statistically unchanged from January. The economy and inflation remain the most important issues for Americans when determining who they may support for president in November. More Americans trust Trump over Biden on these issues and feel they were better off financially under Trump than Biden. However, Americans’ views on both of the candidates remain dim, with many feeling both candidates are too old and not trustworthy. Overall, the 2024 election remains a toss-up.
Most Americans are concerned about TikTok’s influence, as the 2024 presidential election remains a toss-up
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll reveals a close race in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, with former President Donald Trump holding a slight lead over incumbent President Joe Biden. The poll also highlights Americans' concerns regarding data privacy and potential foreign influence related to the social media platform TikTok.
How a (hypothetical) conviction in Trump’s criminal cases may affect the election
The first criminal trial of former President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is underway. A criminal charge against a former president is unprecedented in U.S. history. The trial, too, is shaping up to buck precedent given the high stakes and the uniqueness of the person in question. Here are five charts on where Americans stand on Trump’s trials and how they might react to a conviction.
Nearly three in five registered voters in Florida favor expanding abortion access via ballot measure
After the Florida Supreme Court allowed a six-week abortion ban to go into effect, the latest USA Today/Ipsos poll finds that most registered voters in Florida say they would vote to expand abortion access through a 2024 ballot measure. A similar share of registered voters in Florida say they would vote to legalize recreational cannabis through a different 2024 ballot measure. Ahead of the 2024 election, this poll finds that Florida Democrats are generally less enthusiastic about voting in the November presidential election compared to Republicans. Additionally, few Floridians say they have heard of the main Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, compared to incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott. When it comes to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Floridians are split in their approval of him, and only about one-third say they approve of how he is handling abortion and contraception issues.
Two-thirds of registered voters say Trump’s hush money charges are serious
Ahead of former President Donald Trump’s trial next week, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that nearly two-thirds of registered voters (64%) say the charges—for allegedly falsifying business records around hush money to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal during the 2016 presidential election—are serious, including 36% who say they are very serious. Registered voters share similar concerns around the other three criminal charges against Trump, including allegedly soliciting election fraud, pressuring Georgia state officials to overturn the presidential election, and illegally removing classified documents from the White House and keeping them at a private home after leaving office. About seven in ten say each of these additional charges is serious, and at least half say each charge is very serious.
What presidential approval and the main issue say about Biden’s chances at reelection
Right now, across most early election polling, the 2024 Presidential election is roughly a tie between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. That said, we’re still several months out from the election. Where else can we look to get a pulse on the direction of the 2024 election? In this week's Week in Review, Ipsos President of Polling and Societal Trends Clifford Young dives into where Biden stands among the American public and what key indicators like presidential approval and the main issue say about Biden as we inch closer and closer to the 2024 election.
With the nominations clinched, how does America feel about a Trump vs. Biden rematch?
We all knew it was coming, but it’s finally official: this November, we’re in for a rematch of the 2020 presidential election. Americans are, to say the least, not very enthused about their choices. Here are five charts on how Americans are feeling about the 2024 presidential election and the demographics to watch come November.
2024 race for president remains tied between former President Trump and President Biden
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden are statistically tied on the ballot, something that’s held constant since January. The race remains close when adding independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into the mix. Largely, Biden’s supporters are backing him because they are voting against Donald Trump, while Trump supporters are more likely to support Trump to support him and his policies.
Most Americans still think Trump should go to trial before the 2024 Presidential election
Three in five Americans say they think the federal trial on Donald Trump’s 2020 election subversion case should take place before the presidential election in November, levels that have held steady since August 2023, according to a new Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll.
Americans split on continuing military aid to Israel
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that Americans are split on whether the U.S. should continue providing military aid to Israel. Nearly half (47%) of Americans say they would be more likely to support a 2024 presidential candidate who continues to support Israel, while 48% say they would be less likely to support a candidate who does so. These sentiments, however, vary by political affiliation. While at least half of Democrats (56%) and independents (51%) say that continuing to give military aid to Israel would make them less likely to support a presidential candidate, most Republicans (62%) say doing so would make them more likely to support a presidential candidate.
It's a major global election year, and populism is on the ballot
New Ipsos polling suggests that feelings that the “system is broken” are high across the world. Global citizens clamor for a strong leader to “take their country back” from the rich and powerful. Given the popularity of populist leaders on the ballots, could 2024 usher in a new set of populist leaders? Read Ipsos' analysis on where the world stands on populism and where things could head in 2024.
Americans divided on whether President Biden received special treatment in classified documents report
New Reuters/Ipsos polling finds that Americans are split on whether President Biden received special treatment after federal prosecutors declined to press charges on Biden after a 15-month probe into his possible mishandling of classified documents, which was detailed in the recently released Hur Report. One in four Americans are very familiar with comments Special Counsel Robert Hur made regarding President Biden’s age. Majorities of Americans feel President Biden and former President Trump are too old to work in government. However, more Americans feel President Biden is too old to work in government than former President Donald Trump.
Majority of Americans think both Biden and Trump are too old to serve second terms
A new ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted after the release of the Hur Report finds that a majority of Americans (59%) believe that both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are too old for another term as president. This finding, coming after allegations in Special Counsel Hur’s report of President Joe Biden’s memory lapses, suggests that age will continue to be a factor in the 2024 election. An additional quarter of Americans (27%) say that only Biden is too old to serve another term (but not Trump). Only one in ten Americans (11%) say that neither is too old to serve another term. Partisanship plays a large part in assessments of the candidates’ age with the majority of Republicans (62%) saying only Biden while the majority of both Democrats (69%) and Independents (70%) say both are too old.
The most important factors for the Oval Office
Below are five charts on the factors that do and don’t matter when it comes to election forecasting. Read Ipsos' analysis and rundown of how to make sense of the uncertainty and signals surrounding the election. 
A majority of Americans think both Biden and Trump should NOT run for president again in 2024
New Reuters/Ipsos polling finds that Americans are dissatisfied with their choices for president. Most feel that Donald Trump (56%) and Joe Biden (70%) should not run for president again in 2024. Two in three (67%) say they are tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and want someone new.
Why are Republicans all in on Trump?
President Clifford Young analyzes what is keeping Donald Trump as a decisive frontrunner for Republicans. In short, he is a candidate that is playing off on a widely held feeling in the electorate: that the system is broken.
Trump continues to lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination
In the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling conducted just ahead of the Iowa caucuses, Trump continues to be the front runner for his party’s presidential nomination by a large margin. When it comes to the general election, the race remains too close to call between Biden and Trump. The economy and reducing crime continue to be the most important issues for Americans when it comes to determining how they will vote. Americans continue to view Trump as stronger on these two issues than Biden.
American public split on Trump removal from Colorado, Maine ballots
Though a slim majority of Americans support bringing criminal charges against Donald Trump, fewer support him being removed from the presidential primary ballots in Colorado and Maine, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll. If the U.S. Supreme Court does review the rulings in these states, a plurality of Americans believe they should allow Trump to remain on the ballot in all states.
