2024 race for president remains tied between former President Trump and President Biden

Washington DC, March 18, 2024—A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden are statistically tied on the ballot, something that’s held constant since January. The race remains close when adding independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into the mix. Largely, Biden’s supporters are backing him because they are voting against Donald Trump, while Trump supporters are more likely to support Trump to support him and his policies.

About half of Americans are worried that a presidential candidate will steal an election, while about two in three Americans are worried that a partisan state legislature will overturn the popular vote in their state.

Detailed findings:

• The ballot is on trend with a January Reuters/Ipsos poll – both Trump (36%) and Biden (34%) are statistically tied.
• When RFK Jr. is added to the mix, it remains a very close election. Biden (43%) is ahead of Trump (38%) among registered voters who are certain to vote, with RFK Jr. getting 12%.
• Though the Republican primary is essentially over, Donald Trump was the top pick as the Republican nominee for president for most Republicans (62%), and Nikki Haley was top pick (19%) for the Republican nominee for about one in five Republicans in the Republican primary.
• Over half of Biden’s supporters are backing him because they are voting against Donald Trump and his policies (61% of registered voters), while Trump supporters are more likely to say they support Trump and his policies (49% of registered voters).
• Trump supporters say they are voting for him because he takes bold positions (80%), and they are split on whether Biden is a threat to the economy (55%) or a threat to democracy (43%).
• A majority of Americans are worried that a presidential candidate will steal an election (51%) and 65% are worried that a partisan state legislature will overturn the popular vote.
• Most Americans (69%) agree that America carries too much of the financial burden for protecting its allies, something a majority of Americans feel regardless of partisanship (86% of Republicans agree, as do 68% of independents and 56% of Democrats).
• However, there are differences in how Americans view the war in Israel. A plurality (45%) says that Israel’s military response in Gaza has been excessive. Most Democrats (66%) feel this way while independents (38%) are mixed and Republicans (29% agree, 48% disagree) are more likely to disagree.
• Few Americans (24%) feel that frozen embryos created in IVF fertility treatments should legally be considered children.

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted March 7-13, 2024, on behalf of Reuters using the KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative sample of 4,094 U.S. residents, age 18 or older.

The study was conducted in English. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race and ethnicity, census region by metropolitan status, education, household income and political party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Party ID benchmarks are from recent high-quality polls. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18-29, 30-44, 45-59, 60+)
• Race-Ethnicity (White/Non-Hispanic, Black/Non-Hispanic, Other/Non-Hispanic and 2+ Races/Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) by Metropolitan Status (Metro, Non-Metro)
• Education (Less than High School, High School graduate or equivalent, Some College, Bachelor or higher)
• Household Income (under $25K, $25K-$49,999, $50K-$74,999, $75K-$99,999, $100K-$149,999, $150K and over)
• Party ID (Democrat, Republican, Independent, Something else)

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.20 for all adults. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson

Senior Vice President, US

Public Affairs

+1 202 420-2025

[email protected]

Annaleise Azevedo Lohr

Director, U.S.

Public Affairs

[email protected]

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