Why are Republicans all in on Trump?

Early last year, it seemed like we’d have fresh blood at the top of the Republican party. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was polling near former President Donald Trump in early Republican primary polls, and long-awaited federal charges seemed imminent. But since then, Trump has only seemed to strengthen his hold over the Republican base.

Though, by lots of metrics, Trump has struggled to win for Republicans too. And, with 91 charges and a campaign schedule littered with court visits, it’s worth asking: What is keeping him as a decisive frontrunner for Republicans?

In short, he is a candidate that is playing off on a widely held feeling in the electorate: that the system is broken. Below are five charts showing why exactly Trump is still the Republican favorite.

1. Is the Republican primary a done deal? After the midterms, it seemed like there was a real chance that Trump would be dethroned as the Republican candidate. But a handful of federal indictments later, it’s become clear that Trump has a consistent base of support that other candidates haven’t been able to break into, something that’s been made crystal clear after the Iowa Caucus. Stick a fork in it.

2. Why Trump? Majorities of Republicans feel jaded with the systems that make up American life. Namely, the economy, politics, and the media. That means that Trump, who has long promised to “drain the swamp,” is a conduit for widespread anti-establishment sentiment.

3. Fewer constraints. What is necessary to fix the system? For a sizeable portion of Republicans, the dissatisfaction with the system has created the political conditions to put the country in crisis, necessitating a strong president who can rule without checks or balances from other branches of government. While most Americans and Republicans don’t feel these strongman politics are necessary, many do too. Here lay the primordials of authoritarianism.

4. Draining the swamp? Republicans largely don’t trust the mechanism of government, something Trump has long promised to address with his slogan, “drain the swamp.” Even so, while many Republicans don’t trust federal agencies, few Americans (including Republicans) think this should result in more dramatic action. Do Republicans want Trump’s actions as much as his rhetoric? Maybe yes, maybe not.

5. What’s next? The Republican primary season just started, but it’s looking like it’s already over. What are Trump’s chances at re-winning the presidency? Early polling suggests that a hypothetical race between Trump and Biden would be too close to call. Trump has a significant, non-zero chance of winning.

It’s easy to forget that Trump is still so popular. He’s facing many federal indictments to count.  And he lost the presidency once (and the popular vote twice). But he’s picked up on America’s anti-establishment sentiment. This makes him as tough as Teflon. Will this get him the White House? We will see.

Trump, for his part, has said he won’t be a dictator “except for day one.” But we’ve already seen Trump attempt to thwart democracy at least once.