With the nominations clinched, how does America feel about a Trump vs. Biden rematch?

Below are five charts on how Americans are feeling about the 2024 presidential election and the demographics to watch come November

The author(s)
  • Clifford Young President, US, Public Affairs
  • Sarah Feldman Editorial Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Bernard Mendez Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs
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We all knew it was coming, but it’s finally official: this November, we’re in for a rematch of the 2020 presidential election.

After one of the most purely symbolic presidential primary seasons in recent history, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have clinched the nominations as the nominees for their respective parties.

Americans are, to say the least, not very enthused about their choices. Below are five charts on how Americans are feeling about the 2024 presidential election and the demographics to watch come November.

  1. Another nail-biter. Just like it was in 2020, this year’s election is going to be close. Recent polling suggests that the race is too close to call. That said, there’s still a lot of time for things to shift one way or another.
  2. A story of negative partisanship. More evidence that voters aren’t enthused by their choices: a plurality of Americans say their choice for either Biden or Trump is a vote against the other candidate, rather than a vote of support. This is especially true for Biden.
  3. Turnout will decide the election. Are voters actually changing sides? Not really. A majority of voters are sticking with what they did in 2020. Only a very small portion of voters are actually intending to go from Trump to Biden, or vice versa. 2024 isn’t going to come down to Trump or Biden convincing Americans to change sides – it’s more a matter of convincing their existing base to actually vote.
  4. Demographic picture. Biden still does much better among Black and highly educated Americans. Conversely, Trump does better among White and less educated Americans. Though, notably, young Americans don’t seem to be strongly pro-Biden.
  5. Three demographics to watch. Biden far and away polls best among Black Americans. But at the same time, Black Americans are among the least likely demographics to say they plan to vote. Similarly, lower income and lower educated Americans, who swing deep red, are the two least likely demographics to be planning to vote. Whether or not these demographics turn out in large numbers could swing the election. Though, with many months till the election, many people aren’t tuned in and will likely change their mind on their vote intention as Election Day approaches. Watch this space.

The rumbling around voter apathy for the long-awaited Trump-Biden rematch has been long documented.

That said, most Americans haven’t changed their minds when it comes to Trump or Biden. The outcome of the 2024 election will likely come down to convincing Americans to actually vote. Will 2024 be a high turnout election like 2020 and 2022? Or will the long-documented apathy around a Trump-Biden rematch finally catch up to America? We will see.

The author(s)
  • Clifford Young President, US, Public Affairs
  • Sarah Feldman Editorial Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Bernard Mendez Data Journalist, US, Public Affairs

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