Elections amid an evolving economy

The economy has been in a weird spot for a while. Predictions of a recession haven’t yet panned out, inflation is cooling down, and consumers are growing more confident. The economy is perhaps one of the most important factors for any presidential candidate, but given the current state of the economy, will it be at the top of voters’ mind come 2024?

Last week, we showed how an unstable main issue may be complicating President Biden’s hopes at a second term. This week, we dig further into the unstable main issue and changing economy, and whether that leaves room for a spoiler third party candidate to make some noise.

Below are five charts showing how the main issue is evolving and how this can shake up the 2024 election.

1. An economy in flux. Economists have been predicting that the U.S. is on the brink of a recession for months, even years. In the meantime, consumer confidence has inched up. If the economy continues to improve, what would that mean for the main issue? Uncertainty at a minimum.
2. Unclear instructions. Typically, the candidate that dominates the main issue wins the election 85% of the time. What happens if the main issue isn’t so clear? That’s how it’s panning out in 2024, making it difficult to read who has the upper hand. The economy helps Republicans; social issues the Democrats.
3. New main concern. The economy has remained the main issue, but Americans’ most worrying topic has seen a major shift in the past two years. This is tough news for Biden, who has touted his handling of COVID-19 as a strong point. Combined with factors like a middling approval rating, does this leave room for an incumbent to be toppled for a second election in a row?It all depends on the strength of the economy!
4. Where does that leave 2024? Altogether, with the main issue in flux and criminal indictments abound, it’s looking like a rematch of 2020 would be a toss-up. It’s still far out from Election Day 2024, and a lot can still happen. Fuzzy polls, fuzzy logic.
5. Surprise surprise. There’s been a lot of chatter about the potential for a popular candidate to run as a third-party candidate. It is far too early to make predictions on how voters will behave in 2024, but early polling from this month indicates that doing so could have a major impact on the election. Most Americans aren’t exactly enthusiastic about the prospect of another Trump vs. Biden election. Is 2024 the year of the spoiler? We will see.

Conventional wisdom surrounding presidential elections has long centered around the mantra, “it’s the economy, stupid.” Will that still ring true in 2024? Depending on how the economy changes in the coming months, it’s possible that a strong economy may shift as the main issue and the shape of the race as a result. Watch this space.