Biden’s bad spot
“Bidenomics,” the Biden administration’s recent attempt to rehab the public’s relationship with President Biden and the economy, is not landing. The accomplishments the president touted don’t seem to be resonating with many Americans.
Right now, the economy is still a significant worry for Americans, dragging on President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating, a predicament he has been in for some time as we’ve discussed before. Even as inflation has cooled, worry about the economy and a potential recession persist.
Now, as more and more candidates announce plans to run for President in 2024, are the potential ramifications for 2024 any clearer?
Below are five charts on Biden’s approval and how it may come to play in the 2024 election.
- A murky main issue. The main issue matters for elections. Remember the candidate strongest on the main issue wins the election 85% of the time. Right now, many are worried about the economy, but it’s not dominating the issue landscape like it was back in 2012 and 2013, right after the Great Recession. Still, there’s a way to go until November 2024. A lot can happen.
- Two Americas. Absent a single unifying worry, like the economy during a recession, culture wars creep in and fracture what Americans care about. Democrats and Republicans are far apart when it comes to what they view as important. Dominating the main issue may not be enough.
- Bad position. President Biden’s performance on the economy is mediocre, but it’s the issue Americans care most about. Biden performs well on COVID-19, but few Americans still care about it. This is an unfortunate spot to be in: many challenges, few strong points, and one glaring vulnerability.
- Middling approval rating. Ever since taking office, Biden’s approval rating took a steady path down and seems to have bottomed out at around a middling 40 percent range. This puts him in a tough spot as his 2024 campaign gets underway.
- A precarious position. Looking at historical precedent, incumbent presidents with low approval ratings have a low chance at reelection. Ipsos analysis of Biden’s position right now gives him coinflip odds at winning in 2024, which may be worryingly low for Democrats. Even so, he may very well be their best chance, since successors tend to fare even worse than incumbents. Keep watching this space.
“Bidenomics” is the administration’s attempt to get out ahead of one of the president’s weakest points: the economy. It’s an important thing to do; the economy is what Americans care about and that matters when it comes to an election.
Will Biden’s middling reputation among the American public come back to haunt him? Watch what the main issue is in the weeks and months ahead. That’ll give us an idea about where Biden’s approval rating may be going. Stay tuned.
