Ipsos 2024 U.S. National Election Survey – May 2024

Washington DC, May 21, 2024—New Ipsos polling finds political preferences correlate with consumer preferences for household items or services, consumption patterns, and financial products or services. For example, registered voters who own a hybrid or electric vehicle are more likely to support Biden over Trump, while truck owners are more likely to support Trump over Biden.

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Detailed findings:

1. Registered voters who own an electric vehicle are more likely to support Biden than Trump, while those who own a truck are more likely to support Trump over Biden.

• Hybrid or electric vehicle owners who are registered to vote are more likely to support Biden over Trump in the 2024 election (48% support Biden vs. 25% Trump). On the other hand, registered voters who own a truck, boat, motorcycle, or ATV are all more likely to support Trump over Biden.
• Registered voters who own more common household items or services—like high-speed internet or streaming services—are more mixed on their political preferences for the 2024 election, supporting Trump and Biden in near-equal fashion.

2. Moving from items and services registered voters own to consumer behaviors—like sitting down at a restaurant or eating fast food in the past week—produces more marginal vote differences.

• A majority of Americans in the past week report shopping in person at a big box store, like Walmart or Target, getting fast food, or eating at a sit-down restaurant. Fewer report getting coffee from a specialist coffee company (28%) or ordering food delivery using a delivery app (18%).
• Registered voters who ate fast food in the past week slightly favor Trump (34%) over Biden (29%), as do those who shopped in person at a big box store (34% Trump vs. 31% Biden). However, voters who got coffee from a specialty coffee shop are slightly more likely to favor Biden (32%) over Trump (28%) as are those who ordered food delivery using a delivery app in the past week (33% Biden vs. 28% Trump).

3. Registered voters who have a 401K are slightly more likely to support Biden over Trump, while those with crypto are more likely to support Trump or Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

• Thirty-seven percent of registered voters who have a retirement account support Biden, while 33% support Trump, a 4-point difference.
• Voters who own crypto are more likely to support Trump (35%) over Biden (30%), with few supporting RFK Jr. (8%)
• Much like in the items or services category, registered voters who own more common financial products or services—like a credit card or savings account—are more mixed on who they support for the presidency, with near equal shares supporting Biden and Trump.
• For context, 81% of Americans own a general credit card, and 78% own a savings account. By comparison, 62% have a retirement savings account, and only 10% hold some cryptocurrency.

Washington DC, May 16, 2024-- The first Ipsos 2024 independent national election survey finds that among registered voters, the race for president is tied between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Most election coverage and analysis of the polls focus on partisanship or demographic groups; however, a striking and under-covered story of this cycle emerges when analyzing results by media silos or “main media source.”

Viewed through that lens, most of the support for Donald Trump comes from people who get news from conservative media, social media, or have no major source of news. Biden’s base of support, on the other hand, is dominated by people who use ‘mainstream’ news outlets (including cable news, network news, and national newspapers). College education and race and ethnicity intersect in meaningful ways, framing what sources of news people turn to, their political reality, and their support for the two major party candidates. 

Detailed findings:

1. The American public is fragmented by where they get their news.

• Roughly the same number of Americans get their news primarily from network news as social media or digital sources. From there, the next most popular places Americans turn to for news are local news, Fox News or conservative outlets, and newspapers. Finally, the next popular place for news is CNN or MSNBC. About one in five Americans (18%) don't primarily get their news from these sources or do not have a preferred source of news.

2. However, not all Americans are tuning into the same news sources with substantial differences when looking at the ways race and ethnicity intersect with education. Americans without a college degree are less likely to follow mainstream sources.

• White Americans with a Bachelor’s degree are more likely than white Americans without a Bachelor’s degree to get their news from the mainstream media, that is a newspaper, public outlet, a major network, CNN, or MSNBC. White non-college educated Americans are more likely to get their news from social media or an unlisted or undefined source.
• Black Americans, regardless of education, turn primarily to mainstream news sources. However, Black Americans without a college degree are more likely to turn to social media or some undefined or unlisted source than Black Americans with a college degree.
• These patterns weaken among Hispanic Americans. While slightly more Hispanics with a Bachelor’s degree than those without one follow mainstream news, nearly an equal share of Hispanic Americans with a Bachelor’s degree primarily get news from the mainstream media as those who get it from social media or some other source (30% mainstream news vs. 34% social/other). Hispanic Americans without a college degree are far more likely to turn to social media or some other unlisted source for news than any other news source.
• Likewise, college education among AAPI Americans, those who identify with two or more races or as “other” drives news consumption habits. These Americans are more likely to turn to social media or some other news source than their college-educated peers.

3. This fragmentation feeds directly into how people understand political issues.

• Preferred news source shapes what Americans see, worry about, what they know, along with what policies they support. Americans who follow social media or some other undisclosed news source perform worse on knowledge tests that assess whether they can identify true or false statements around topics, such as immigration or facts about the 2020 election.

4. The 2024 race is tied. But that tie is built on substantial fault lines, particularly by how people get their news and by race and educational attainment.

• Among registered voters, 37% support President Joe Biden for president in the election in November, while 35% support former President Donald Trump.
• When registered voters who select Robert F. Kennedy Jr., some other candidate, would not vote, or don’t know are pushed to pick one of the two major party candidates, 48% of registered voters choose Biden and 48% choose Trump.
• Registered voters who support Biden are more likely to get their news from the mainstream media than Trump voters (25% vs. 8%, respectively). Trump voters are more likely than Biden voters to get their news primarily from conservative media (11% vs. 1%), and social media, some other source, or an unlisted source (16% vs. 8%).
• Race, ethnicity, and educational attainment drive differences in which candidates people support. Majorities of college-educated Americans, regardless of race or ethnicity, support Biden over Trump. However, Biden’s support among Black college-educated Americans (89% say they would vote for Biden vs. 9% that say they would vote for Trump) and Hispanic college-educated Americans (62% vs. 36%) is larger than it is among white college-educated (54% vs. 43%) and AAPI, 2+ race/other (55% vs. 40%).
• Except for white non-college-educated Americans, Trump does not win majority support from non-college-educated Americans. However, he does better among this group than among the college-educated. Among those without a college degree, 47% of Hispanics and 45% of AAPI/2+ race/other support Trump, up 11 points and five points from each group’s college degree-holding counterparts, respectively. Likewise, 22% of Black Americans without a college degree support Trump, up from 9% of Black college-educated Americans.

Washington DC, May 15, 2024— The first in a series of election polls from Ipsos finds that media and information silos drive significant differences in support for policies, politics, and, to some extent, reality. It is increasingly conventional wisdom in America that the country exists in a series of media and information silos. In this series of independent surveys, Ipsos will focus on the impacts of those media silos.

Detailed findings:

1. Americans fall into eight broad categories when it comes to the main source of news they report consuming. The categories range from national newspapers to cable and local news to social media, among other categories. These groups directly connect with people’s understanding of the world and, ultimately, their political views. 

2. Preferred information source also strongly corresponds to interest in the major news items of the day.

• Conservative news watchers (85%) follow news about immigration and border security far more than those who watch CNN/MSNBC (65%), network news (60%), or those who get their news on social media (39%), as well as Americans overall (52%).
• Likewise, CNN/MSNBC viewers are more likely than Americans who get their news elsewhere to follow news about abortion or contraception very or somewhat closely (76% of CNN/MSNBC viewers vs. 47% of Americans overall).
• However, some issues, like the economy, inflation, and jobs, are followed by a majority of Americans, regardless of news source, with the one exception being those who get their news from the “Other/None” category.

3. In turn, interest correlates with worries. For instance, viewers of conservative media see significantly different issues facing the country compared to consumers of other cable news, network news, or national newspapers.  

• Immigration is the top concern among conservative media viewers and is the issue they have seen most talked about on the news they watched in the past month.
• Similarly, political extremism or threats to democracy is the main concern among CNN/MSNBC and newspaper followers, which also is one of the news topics they have seen covered the most in the past month.
• Among local, social, or news consumers who don’t have a primary news source or get their news from somewhere else, their top worry is inflation, which, over the past month, is one of the topics these Americans report seeing in the media a lot.

4. Preferred media source connects strongly with respondent’s understanding of the world and their performance on knowledge tests; that is questions that assess whether someone can identify true or false statements about a topic.

• On immigration, Americans with no main news source, those who use social media for news, and people who turn to conservative media for news correlate strongly with not being aware of several current facts around immigration.
• Knowledge strongly correlates with policy preferences on immigration issues. For example, those who can identify accurate statements about immigration are also more likely to support giving legal status to undocumented or illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children or providing undocumented immigrants with access to basic social services. On the other hand, those who struggle to identify facts about immigration are more likely to support building a wall or fence along the U.S.-Mexico border, except for those who answered no questions correctly; these Americans are more likely to say they don’t know whether they support or oppose building a wall or fence along the U.S.-Mexico border.
• Regarding the 2020 and 2024 elections, Americans with no main news source, those who use social media for news, and people who turn to conservative media for news are more likely to not know facts about recent elections, with more in these groups incorrectly saying that Donald Trump won the 2020 election.
• Here, too, knowledge strongly corresponds with policy preferences, with those who can identify accurate statements about the 2020 and 2024 elections more likely to support abolishing the Electoral College. On the other hand, those who struggle to identify accurate facts about the 2020 and 2024 elections are more likely to support removing civil service protections for career federal employees, allowing the President to fire them at will. These Americans are also less confident that the 2024 presidential election will be open and fair.

About the Study

This Ipsos 2024 National Election survey was conducted May 7-13, 2024, by Ipsos using our KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 2,144 adults ages 18+.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. No reminder emails were sent for this study.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.06. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The study was conducted in English. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income and 2020 vote. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. 2020 vote results are from the official vote totals of the 2020 presidential election. The weighting categories were as follows:

• Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
• Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
• Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelors and beyond)
• Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
• Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
• Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
• 2020 vote (Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Other, Didn’t vote)

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
[email protected]

Mallory Newall
Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 374-2613
[email protected]

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