Ipsos 2024 U.S. Swing State Election Survey – June 2024

Washington, DC, June 20, 2024 – A new poll of Americans living in the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada shows that presidential race remains a toss-up. On key issues facing the country, Trump outperforms Biden on the two most important issues – the economy and immigration.  The survey also shows a connection between media sources and who respondents say they will vote for in the election. Additionally, most Americans report hearing a lot of coverage about certain issues that many in swing states do not feel are even in the top 5 issues that face the United States. For more data on Ipsos' national polling, please follow the link here.

Detailed findings

Respondents say the most important issues facing the country are inflation (49%), immigration (30%), political extremism (24%) and crime or gun violence (23%).

• These views are consistent across each of the regions, but Americans in Arizona and Nevada are more likely to view immigration (35%) as important compared to those in the Midwestern or Southeastern swing states.

Likely voters’ perceptions of major issues are in line with the general population.

• Among respondents who say inflation and immigration are top issues facing the country, Donald Trump (68% and 82% respectively) is the preferred candidate over Joe Biden (29% and 17% respectively).
• For those concerned about political extremism or polarization, 71% say they would vote for Biden if the election were held today, compared to 26% who say the same about Trump.
• Likely voters who say crime or gun violence is a top issue are also more likely to support Biden (64%) than Trump (32%).

The survey asked voters which presidential candidate has a better plan, approach or policy toward key issues and on the top two issues that are most important to likely voters in swing states, Trump has a double-digit lead over Biden.

• On the economy, 46% of likely voters say that Trump has a better plan, policy or approach than Biden (34%), and on immigration, 48% prefer Trump’s approach to Biden’s (28%).
• Trump (35%) and Biden (33%) are tied on political extremism or threats to democracy. Biden receives higher marks on healthcare (37%) than Trump (30%).

For these top issues, Americans living in swing states report hearing a lot about inflation (56%), immigration (51%), political extremism (44%), and crime or gun violence (42%) in the news.  

• While just 9% of Americans living in swing states say that foreign conflicts or terrorism is one of the most important issues facing the country, 46% say they see foreign conflicts in the news a lot.
• The same pattern holds for abortion (12% view as a top issue, 36% say they see a lot of coverage), election security (10% view as a top issue, 29% say they see a lot of coverage) and natural disasters (1% view it as an important problem, but 26% say they hear a lot about it).

Looking at Joe Biden’s presidential approval rating, the poll shows that 34% of those living in swing states approve of how Joe Biden is handling the presidency, which is in line with the Reuters/Ipsos national average from May 2024, at 36%.

Despite Biden’s shortcoming on key issues and relatively low approval rating, if the presidential election were held today, the race is too close to call, with 35% of registered, likely voters indicating they would support Joe Biden, 37% indicating they would vote for Donald Trump, and 6% indicating they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. When incorporating a forced choice question between Biden and Trump, 47% report they would vote for Biden, 50% would vote for Trump and 3% refused.

Turning to media consumption, 31% of Americans living in swing states say their main source of news is social media (16%) or other/none (16%). One third get their news from mainstream outlets including CNN/MSNBC, network news, and newspapers, and 11% get their news from conservative outlets like Fox News (9%) and less mainstream sources like Breitbart, NewsMax and OAN (2%). The survey shows a relationship between intent to vote and media consumption, with mainstream media consumers more likely to report they would vote for Biden, while local and digital news are a toss-up between the candidates, and social media consumers and conservative media are more likely to say they would vote for Trump.

About the Study

This Ipsos poll was conducted June 4-12, 2024 on behalf of Reuters using the KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative sample of 2,453 residents of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Neveda, age 18 or older.

The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.58 for all adults. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.

The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The study was conducted in English. The data for the sample by state were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, metropolitan status, household income, and 2020 vote choice in each state. Vote choice benchmarks were calculated using the 2020 Federal Election results and Census data for the Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2020.The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS).

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Chris Jackson 
Senior Vice President, U.S. 
Public Affairs 
[email protected]

Annaleise Azevedo Lohr 
Director, U.S. 
Public Affairs
[email protected]

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