Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report: Republican Blues Ahead?

Between April 19 and April 21 and May 3 and May 6 2002, Ipsos Public Affairs interviewed a representative sample of 1579 registered voters nationwide. The margin of error for the combined surveys is +/- 2.5%.

Washington, D.C. - On the Congressional race, voters remain consistent in Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report polls, with 43% preferring a Republican victory in the race for control of Congress, and 41% preferring Democrats in the most recent poll.

Republicans enjoyed a slight uptick in April that disappeared in May. Current results match the average results across 6 polls in the first quarter of 2002.

Three underlying trends in the Ipsos/Cook poll should serve as a warning sign for Republicans, however. If these trends persist, they are likely to tilt the critical congressional preference question in favor of Democrats in the months ahead.

1. Bush's job performance rating on domestic issues is declining among non-Republican men, and also among older voters, and on the Pacific Coast.

Regarding Bush, fewer than half (49%) of voters would definitely vote to reelect Bush now, down from 54% in the first quarter. That decline reflects declining positive job approval ratings for Bush on foreign policy, the economy and other domestic issues. Bush continues to earn very positive scores on his handling of the economy, but his job performance scores on the economy are a net 7 points lower than in the first quarter.

Bush's scores on other issues besides the economy are +16 points more positive (56%) than negative (40%) today, but that represents a decline of a net 9 points from the +25 margin Bush enjoyed on these issues in the first quarter (61% positive and 36% negative, or +25).

Three groups in particular demonstrate low support on Bush's performance on other domestic issues like like health care, education, the environment and energy:

• Voters age 65-74 (52% positive, 43% negative), making that pool of faithful voters the age group least supportive of Bush's performance on domestic issues.
• Voters on the Pacific Coast (45% positive and 51% negative), and most importantly,
• Non-Republican men:
  • Democratic men, at 28% positive and 69% negative, are far more disapproving than Democratic women who give Bush a 36% positive and 59% negative score on other domestic issues.
  • The same pattern holds among Independents, with Independent men (41% positive, 50% negative) more disapproving than Independent women (49% positive, 42% negative).

2. Concerns about the economy persist among older voters, who are the most likely to turn out and vote in November.

Bush and the Republicans have enjoyed a period of political success that continued uncoupled from all the economic concerns that developed in the summer of 2001 and persisted through the emotional period following the terrorist attacks in September. Now, economic concerns are abating, but Republicans and Bush are not benefiting from the early indications of more positive feelings about the economy.

Overall, adults are feeling better about their home spending and saving than they were in the first quarter.

The fact that increasingly positive feelings about home budget issues are not matched by an increase in support for Republican control of Congress should concern Republicans. One reason that increasing positive personal financial feelings are not translating into support for Republican control of Congress is the fact that older adults are not sharing in growing personal financial optimism that is largely restricted to younger adults.

The current recovery of good feelings does not extend above age 40.

3. As a result of disenchantment with Bush's job performance, Democrats, including Democratic men, are returning to the Democratic fold on the issue of Congressional control. Among Independents, men--not women--are leading the movement toward Democrats.

• At this stage in the race, Democrats are almost as loyal to Democrats for Congress (80% of Democrats want Democrats to control Congress) as Republican voters are to Republican control of Congress (85%).
• Democratic men are almost as loyal to Democrats for Congress (78% of Democratic men and 81% of Democratic women want to see Democrats win control of Congress).
• Among Independents, Independent men want Democrats to win control of Congress (15% Republicans and 22% Democrats) while Independent women lean Republican (23% Republicans and 12% Democrats).

For more information on this release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President Ipsos Public Affairs 202.463.7300 [email protected]