Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report: Who's A Republican?

This analysis compares combined data from eight polls (N = 8,000; margin of error "b 1.1%) among adults age 18 and over conducted before September 11th (June 29, 2001 ЎV September 9, 2001) with combined data from 11 polls (N =11,000; margin of error "b 1.0%) among adults age 18 and over after September 11th (September 21, 2001 ЎV December 14, 2001) in order to provide a large enough sample to determine which subgroups in the population were showing movement in party identification.

Washington, DC (January 22, 2002) ЎV Since September 11th, party identification has shifted among all adults in the U.S. from a 9- point Democrat advantage before September 11th (46% D to 37% R) to a 1-point Democrat advantage after September 11th (43% D to 42% R) ЎV a net 8-point shift in favor of Republicans. Ipsos-Reid, a nonpartisan public affairs firm working in conjunction with the Cook Political Report, has completed an extensive demographic review of a series of public polls they conducted before and after September 11th to understand the underlying dynamics of the shift seen in voters' party identification.

Weak partisan groups showed substantial increases in Republican party identification. These weak partisans include 18-29 year olds, urban youths under 30, (both showing a +15 percentage point net shift toward Republican identification), and Generation NextЎ166ers (those born between 1975 and 1984), who show a +13 percentage point net shift. However, these groups tend to be young, not particularly engaged in politics or inclined to vote. The shift seen in their party identification is probably based more on what theyЎ166ve been seeing and hearing in the news rather than on any firm ideological basis.

Women in lower income and education brackets tended to shift Republican in their party identification after September 11th. These womenЎ166s subgroups include low-income working mothers (+16 percentage point net shift), non-college women, non-working suburban moms (+11 percentage point net shift respectively), and single moms (+10 percentage point net shift). The shift in party identification among these traditionally Democratic audiences suggests Democratic Party efforts on behalf of their economic interests are not strong enough right now to sustain the partisan loyalties of these groups.

Regions where Democrats held enormous advantages in party identification also shifted Republican, in particular, New England (+22 percentage points) and the East South Central portion of the United States (+16 percentage points). Even with these shifts, however, Democrats still enjoy double digit advantages in party identification.

Democratic Party officials might argue that these trends among youth, low-income women, and those in the northeast are temporary artifacts of the war that will go away when the war winds down.

Movement among adults with only some college experience (+15 percentage points), lower-income adults earning between $15,000 and $30,000 (+12 percentage points), lower-income whites (+16 percentage points), and Depression Era babies (+11 percentage points), mirrors the groups drawn to ReaganЎ166s Ў167AmericaЎ166s FirstЎЁ message when he initially took office. TodayЎ166s movement could prove to be a more persistent shift that rewards BushЎ166s tougher foreign policy stance.

Some groups apparently were not impressed enough by recent events to have changed party identification and remain staunchly Democrat. This is especially true among blacks. Blacks overall show a +2 percentage point net increase in Democratic identification, black men show a +6 percentage point net increase, and blacks 18-44 years of age show a +7 percentage point net increase in Democratic party identification, demonstrating movement in opposition to the overall national trends in party identification. Additionally, high income/highly educated men shifted slightly more Democratic in party identification (+1 percentage point net increase).

Other demographic groups, including Hispanics and Asians, shifted slightly Republican (+5 percentage point and +6 percentage points respectively), but still remain overwhelmingly Democratic in their party identification. Whites overall shifted +9 percentage points towards Republican identification, leaving the Republicans with a +7 percentage point partisan advantage among whites (47% Republican, 40% Democratic).

This analysis was conducted by Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs, the Washington, D.C.-based division of Ipsos-Reid, which is part of the worldЎ166s fourth largest polling and market research organization, the Ipsos group, based in Paris. Ipsos-Reid US Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective public affairs research organization made up of Democratic and Republican campaign and political polling veterans. It was established in Washington in August 2001, and it is led by Thomas Riehle, who has more than 15 years of experience as a political pollster in Washington. The Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report poll is conducted the first and third week of every month, as part of Ipsos-ReidЎ166s weekly omnibus polling service.

These political surveys are designed in conjunction with Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections for the U.S. House, Senate, governor and President as well as domestic American political trends. The New York Times has called the publication, Ў167a newsletter that both parties consider authoritativeЎЁ while the dean of the Washington political press corps, the Washington PostЎ166s David Broder has called Charlie Cook, its editor and publisher, Ў167perhaps the best political handicapper in the nation.ЎЁ

Cook also writes two weekly columns that appear in National Journal magazine and CongressDaily/AM and on nationaljournal.com, and serves as a political analyst for Cable News NetworkЎ166s show Ў167Inside Politics.ЎЁ Researched and written by a staff of five based in Washington, D.C., the Cook Political ReportЎ166s subscribers are primarily the lobbyists and managers for the political action committees of the nationЎ166s major corporations, trade associations and labor unions as well as by news organizations, foreign governments and others with an interest in detailed, impartial information and analysis of Congressional, gubernatorial and presidential elections.

To view the complete media release and tables, please download the PDF file.

To view the latest poll results and research from Ipsos Public Affairs please go to: http://www.ipsos-reid.com/us/media/content/pre_rel.cfm

Contact: Thomas Riehle, President Ipsos-Reid U.S. Public Affairs Telephone 202.463.7300 Cell 202.494.8595 [email protected]