Ipsos/Cook Political Report Poll: Pessimism Growing Among Key Swing Voter Groups

Public Sector

Could Be An Indicator Of How Close The November 2004 Election Might Be

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Between July 22-24, 2003, and August 5-8, 2003, Ipsos-Public Affairs interviewed for the Cook Political Report a representative sample of 2,001 adult Americans nationwide, including 1,532 registered voters. The margin of error for the combined surveys is 177 2.2% for all adults, 177 2.5% for registered voters. Washington, D.C. -- In interviews with 1,532 registered voters conducted July 22-24, 2003, and August 5-8, 2003, the Ipsos/Cook Political Report Poll finds potential trouble for Bush's reelection effort among certain key groups of swing voters. Key Swing Voter Groups Are Dissatisfied With The Current Direction Of The Country
  • Among Hispanics, the difference between right direction and wrong track has gone from a net positive (+25) in late April to a net negative (-14) in early August, a shift of 39 points.
  • Among Non-college educated men, the difference between right direction and wrong track has gone from a net positive (+30) in late April to a net negative (-10) in early August, a shift of 40 points.
Overall Approval Of Bush's Handling Of His Job As President Has Declined Significantly Since A Peak In Late April
  • While still a net positive, overall job approval among Hispanics has dropped from +38 in late April to +10 in early August, a net drop of 28 points.
  • Among non-college educated men, overall approval has declined by a net 18 points, from +46 in late April to +28 in early August.
Approval Of Bush's Handling Of Foreign Affairs Has Dropped Substantially Among Hispanics; Non-College Educated Men Still Overwhelmingly Approve
  • Among Hispanics, approval of Bush's handling of foreign affairs has declined from +43 in early April to a bare majority (+5) in early August, an overall decline of 38 points.
  • Non-college educated men still overwhelmingly approve of Bush's handling of foreign affairs, declining only 3 points since late April (from +57 to +54).
Key Swing Groups Have Declined Significantly In Their Approval Of Bush's Handling Of The Economy
  • Hispanics have shifted from a majority (net difference of +14) approving of Bush's handling of the economy in late April to a dead heat between approve and disapprove (net difference of -2) in early August.
  • While a majority of non-college educated men still approve of Bush's handling of the economy (net difference of +7), their support has dipped significantly since late April (net difference of +22).
Attitudes About Bush Approval May Highlight Potential Trouble Among Groups Of Swing Voters
  • Among Hispanics, approval of Bush's handling of foreign affairs and the economy has declined significantly. A majority feel the direction of the country is off on the wrong track (a significant reversal from April). This increasing frustration is reflected in their attitudes toward reelecting Bush. Those who say they would definitely vote for someone else are in a dead heat with those who definitely would vote to reelect Bush, a decline of 11 points since late April.
  • Among non-college educated men, however, approval of Bush's handling of foreign affairs appears to be countering their increasingly negative views on the direction of the country and Bush's handling of the economy. Those who say they would definitely vote to reelect Bush is unchanged compared to late April. Those who definitely would vote for someone else have increased marginally. For more information on this news release, please contact: Thomas Riehle President, Ipsos-Public Affairs Washington, D.C. 202.463.7300 About Ipsos-Public Affairs Ipsos-Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective public affairs research organization made up of Democratic and Republican campaign and political polling veterans. It was established in August 2001 in Washington, D.C., and is headed by veteran pollster Thomas Riehle, who has more than 15 years of experience as a political pollster in Washington. The division conducts strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of U.S. and international organizations. Typically, the division's studies are based on opinion research, not only public opinion, but often elite stakeholder, corporate and media opinion. Ipsos-Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, the second largest survey-based marketing research company in the world. The political survey is designed in conjunction with Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections for the U.S. House, Senate, governor and President as well as domestic American political trends. The New York Times has called the publication, "a newsletter that both parties consider authoritative" while the dean of the Washington political press corps, the Washington Post's David Broder has called Charlie Cook, its editor and publisher, "perhaps the best political handicapper in the nation." Cook also writes two weekly columns that appear in National Journal magazine and CongressDaily/AM and on www.nationaljournal.com, and serves as a political analyst for Cable News Network's show "Inside Politics." Researched and written by a staff of five based in Washington, D.C., the Cook Political Report's subscribers are primarily the lobbyists and managers for the political action committees of the nation's major corporations, trade associations and labor unions as well as by news organizations, foreign governments and others with an interest in detailed, impartial information and analysis of Congressional, gubernatorial and presidential elections. About Ipsos The Ipsos group is the second largest survey-based marketing research company in the world, and has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999. Ipsos companies offer a full suite of research services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies in advertising, marketing, media, public opinion and customer loyalty research. Member companies, employing more than 3800 staff in 35 countries, also offer in each of their specializations a full range of off-line and online research products as well as custom, syndicated, omnibus and panel services. To learn more, visit: www.ipsos.com Ipsos is listed on the Euronext Paris Premier Marchй, and is part of the SBF 120 and Next Prime Indices as well as eligible to the Deferred Settlement System (SRD). Euroclear code 7329, Reuters ISOS.LN, Bloomberg IPS FP
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