The keys to Trump’s second term

President Donald Trump left his first term having one of the least positive approval ratings in recent history, beat only by the scandal-ridden Richard Nixon. Despite that, he still found his way back into the Oval Office four years later.

Trump may not have to worry about reelection in 2028, but how his favorability and approval fares among the public in his second term will still be impactful in determining America’s political future. Namely, how Americans react to Trump’s second presidency could decide who comes out on top in the 2026 midterms and whether Trump’s successor will face an uphill or downhill battle in 2028.

Below are five charts on the factors that will help and hurt Trump’s standing among the American public in his second and final term in office.

1. Approval rating. Trump will begin his presidency with an approval rating in the high 40s. It’s rare, if not unprecedented, for presidents to begin their second term with one of the highest approval ratings of their career. Of course, non-consecutive presidential terms are also a rarity. Historical trends suggest that approval ratings tend to decline 100 days in office after the honeymoon period wears off. Can Trump use this initial boost as a launching point, or will the initial excitement wear off? Stay posted.
2. Fears, hopes of a Trump presidency. Americans are more worried and pessimistic about Trump’s second term than excited or optimistic. Negative views of Trump’s character, fears of cronyism, and concern over the state of democracy drive the biggest worries. For Trump, winning over these Americans will likely mean appeasing these anxieties.
3. Which Trump policies will Americans support? Some of Trump’s proposed policies, like deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have criminal records, have strong support among the public. However, policies like ending DEI programs or increasing tariffs on imports from countries like China and Mexico, will likely divide the nation. Similarly, support for broader mass deportations may be conditional – support for deporting illegal immigrants that have criminal records is high, but separating families or affecting the costs of goods isn’t. Watch this space.
4. Rare common ground. These days, there isn’t much that both sides of the political spectrum agree on. One exception to that is Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the political and economic system in the country. This has been a key pillar of Trump’s political identity. If Trump can continue to speak to this dissatisfaction during his presidency, his support among the public could stand to benefit.
5. It’s the economy, stupid. Don’t underestimate the importance of the main issue. In 2020, Biden won largely to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2024, many Americans voted for Trump mainly to fix the economy. The economy remains Americans’ main issue. Keeping the economy strong and costs down will be key.

The 2024 election largely represented a change in tides after four years of Democratic rule over the White House. Trump and the Republican Party have touted their 2024 successes as a “mandate” to spend the next four years reshaping the nation in Trump’s vision. However, public opinion suggests that, outside of the core Republican base, Americans voted for Trump largely to fix a broken economy.

If Trump wants to build on his approval rating, that may mean holding off on policies that aren’t popular outside of his base, such as overly sweeping deportations or some culture war issues. That said, Trump may not have to care about his approval rating. Without having to worry about re-election, he may instead focus on shaping the nation in his image. But if he prioritizes issues that appeal to his base over issues that appeal to the nation more broadly, don’t rule out another changing of the tides in 2028.