Americans Debate the Consequences of the War in Iraq

Each quarter, Ipsos-Public Affairs designs a study of American opinion on different topics for the PBS program Flashpoints USA. The latest study, fielded in the days leading up to the handover of power to the interim Iraqi government, examined American opinion on the conduct and consequences of the war. The poll was designed to provide context and generate debate on the program.

Are Iraqis and Americans Safer Now? Four in ten Americans (44%) believe Iraqis are safer now than before the war, although more than half of Americans say Iraqis are either less safe (27%) or that there has been no change in their situation (27%). Opinion is divided on whether Americans are more or less safe now than before the war: 30% say we are safer, 31% say we are less safe, and 38% say there has been no change.

Two-thirds (65%) of Americans think there should be fewer troops in Iraq six months from now, but only 25% believe this will be the case. Seven in ten say there will be as many (33%) or more (38%) U.S. troops in Iraq at the end of this year.

Preserving a Professional Military Half of Americans say their confidence in the U.S. military is unchanged (52%) as a result of what has gone on in Iraq, while 34% feel more confident and 13% are less confident. Maintaining a professional military received widespread support: 80% support increasing pay and benefits to attract volunteers into active service. More than two-thirds (68%) reject the institution of a draft to ensure sufficient numbers in uniform in the future.

Some feel that military operations should not have had to rely so heavily on reserves; the public is split between those who agree (46%) and disagree (51%) that it was a mistake to have National Guard troops patrolling streets and guarding prisoners in Iraq.

Bringing the War Home Nearly half of those interviewed (46%) say they personally know someone who has served in Iraq as part of the full-time armed forces or the National Guard, and one in ten (9%) report that they know someone who was injured or killed.

Having a personal connection to Iraq appears to affect attitudes toward the military and the war. Those who know someone who has served in Iraq are somewhat more likely (58%) than those who do not know anyone who has served in Iraq (48%) to say it was "worth it" to go to war in Iraq. Those who have been personally affected are also less likely to say sending in the National Guard was a mistake (42%), and more likely to say their confidence in the military has gone up (40%).

Leadership and War Overall, half (54%) say the handling of the war will influence how they vote in the presidential race; 31% say it will not. More Americans believe Bush (50%) would handle the situation in Iraq better from this point forward than Kerry (37%).

When asked which of seven wartime presidents would be their preferred Commander-in-Chief if the U.S. were to be involved in a war next year, a quarter (25%) picked George W. Bush. As many would like to see Franklin Delano Roosevelt (24%) in charge, followed by Lincoln (18%), and Truman (14%). Few would choose to put George H. W. Bush (6%), Lyndon B. Johnson (3%), or Woodrow Wilson (1%) at the helm.

Rating Foreign Policy As an historical event, the second Iraq war pales in comparison to the country's successful transition from the Cold War. Increased U.S. cooperation with former Cold War enemies like Russia and China (45%) outstrip the overthrow of Saddam Hussein (19%) as the United States' most important foreign policy success of the past 15 years. Each of these represents a more popular foreign policy success than the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan (10%), NAFTA (8%), the first Gulf War (7%), or the intervention in Kosovo (4%).