Most Americans think a recession is coming

The Ipsos Consumer Tracker asks Americans questions about culture, the economy and the forces that shape our lives. Here's one thing we learned this week.

Why we asked: The economic policies of the current administration have revived talk of a recession, talk the administration isn’t arguing with. As the New York Times reports, “Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, has said Mr. Trump’s policies are ‘worth it’ even if they cause a recession. Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, has said the economy may need a ‘detox period’ after becoming dependent on government spending. And Mr. Trump has said there will be a ‘period of transition’ as his policies take effect.” So we put together a new battery of questions with a couple important statements in it that we plan to trend from time to time.

What we found: 61% overall think the U.S. is headed for a recession in the next year. And only 24% think the economic news they read is positive. But under that are … huge party splits. I know, shocking. Nearly twice as many Democrats as Republicans think the recession is coming (82% vs 44%). And Republicans are more than twice as likely to be getting positive economic news (41% vs 16%).

Likely related, the new Ipsos Certain/Satisfaction Index shows that uncertainty continues to grow across every demographic, with the biggest shifts among women and the affluent. Oh, and a huge shift (23 points!) among independents. The independents have now fully broken from the pack and are looking a lot more like Democrats in many ways. Things are generally starting to striate a little bit. Also, a majority of every demographic split is now either stuck or has a lot of uncertainty. If you add in the “some uncertainty” it’s close to 90% for everyone except Republicans, and even they show 70% having at least some uncertainty. Satisfaction also fell among most demographics, with again the strongest shift in independents but also the affluent. Now a lot of demographics are under 2.5 on a 5-point scale.

More insights from this wave of the Ipsos Consumer Tracker:

Most Americans are worried about an apocalypse. But different ones.

The Ipsos Care-o-Meter: What does America know about vs. what does America care about