New wave of Ipsos Ukraine Resilience Monitor measures toll of war and access to basic services in newly liberated and frontline cities

Ukrainians are eager to return despite lack of employment and deteriorating access to basic services

The author(s)

  • Olena Siletska Public Affairs Service Line Leader, Ukraine
  • Luda Andriyevska Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Helen Fisun Director, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, November 23, 2022 – The second wave of Ipsos Ukraine Resilience Monitor conducted on October 7 – 20, finds deteriorating access to basic services in newly liberated and frontline cities. The situation in newly liberated cities is stark as only 37% of residents have access to hot water and 43% to heat. Things are not any better in some frontline cities: just 29% of Mykolaiv’s residents have access to safe drinking water and 37% to hot water. Access to heat has also receded since the previous survey wave conducted in early September: only 52% in Mykolaiv have access to heat (3 percentage points less than in September) and 57% in Kharkiv (9 points less).

Employment levels are also very low. Less than one-quarter of residents in newly liberated cities (22%) and less than half in Mykolaiv (39%) and Kharkiv (43%) are employed. Compared with pre-war levels, this represents a drop in employment of 54 percentage points in newly liberated cities, 36 points in Mykolaiv, and 40 points in Kharkiv.

Despite trying conditions, Ukrainians are eager to return home. Our October survey shows that, on average, four in five respondents who moved to the frontline and newly liberated cities studied since the invasion intend to return home when possible.

Detailed Findings

Employment rates across the frontline and newly liberated cities surveyed are extremely low:

  • Only 22% of respondents in newly liberated towns (Balakliia, Izyum, Kupyansk, and Lyman) are employed.
  • Among the four frontline cities surveyed, employment is lower in Mykolaiv (39%) and Kharkiv (43%) than it is in Zaporizhya (51%) and Dnipro (58%)
  • Compared with a pre-war average of 80%, current employment levels are lower by 54 percentage points in the newly liberated cities, 40 points in Kharkiv, 36 points in Mykolaiv, 27 points in Zaporizhzhia, and 22 points in Dnipro.

Majorities in newly liberated and front-line cities say that they have experienced a significant loss of income or have no personal income: 79% in newly liberated cities, 75% in Mykolaiv, 74% in Kharkiv, 64% in Zaporizhzhia and 59% in Dnipro.

The October survey finds that many essential services have deteriorated and are of significant concern as the country braces for winter. As in the previous wave of this study, most of Mykolaiv’s residents continue to not have any access to safe drinking water -- only 29% do. Only half or fewer in newly liberated cities, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia have access to hot water (37%, 37%, and 52% respectively).

Access to heat is another major concern. In the newly liberated cities surveyed, only 43% have heat. In the frontline cities of Mykolaiv and Kharkiv, which have both been bombed extensively since the beginning of the conflict, only 52% and 57%, respectively, do. Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro are faring slightly better with 64% and 73% of residents reporting access to heat, respectively.

Despite low employment and dwindling access to basic services like heat and water, Ukrainians are determined to return home. The October survey found that, on average across all the cities studied, four in five respondents who moved there since the invasion say plan to return home.

Lastly, unchanged from the previous wave, the October survey wave also finds that Ukrainians believe that rebuilding the country is the responsibility of the Ukrainian government. The majority of respondents in all surveyed cities believe their local and national government is responsible for reconstruction (57% and 60%, respectively on average across all surveyed cities).

These are the findings of an Ipsos survey conducted October 7-20, 2022, among 2,645 adults aged 18-65 currently residing in four frontline cities (Dnipro, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia) and four newly liberated cities (Balakliia, Izyum, Kupyansk, and Lyman). The sample consists of 600 adults living in each of the four major cities (601 in Dnipro) and a total of 244 adults living across the four newly liberated cities. Interviews were conducted in Ukrainian on Ipsos’ survey platform.

The sample for each city is balanced by gender and age weight to reflect the structure of the adult population identified in Ipsos’s Stand with Ukraine Barometer – a reference study based on 4,000 interviews over 5 waves/months among adults aged 18-55 residing in cities of 50,000 inhabitants across Ukraine (excluding ATO) with a natural flow on current region, gender and age, and quotas by region and size of the city of residence before February 24, 2022.

Where results do not sum to 100 or the ‘difference’ appears to be +/-1 more/less than the actual, this may be due to rounding, multiple responses or the exclusion of don't knows or not stated responses.

The precision of Ipsos online polls is calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 600 accurate to +/- 4.9 percentage points

For complete results, please refer to the following annotated questionnaire:

Full Annotated Questionnaire

Did you live in [City] before February 24, 2022?

 

TOTAL

Kharkiv

Dnipro

Mykolaiv

Zaporizhzhia

Newly Liberated Cities

Yes

93%

95%

91%

96%

87%

94%

No, I have moved here after February 24, 2022

7%

5%

9%

4%

13%

6%

Total (n)

2645

600

601

600

600

244

Please seelct the location where you lived permanently before February 24, 2022?

 

TOTAL

Kharkiv

Dnipro

Mykolaiv

Zaporizhzhia

Newly Liberated Cities

Dnipro

1%

4%

0%

0%

1%

0%

Pavlograd

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

0%

Bakhmut

0%

0%

1%

0%

1%

0%

Kostyantinіvka

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

0%

Kramators'k

2%

0%

10%

0%

1%

0%

Mariupol'

1%

0%

6%

0%

0%

0%

Pokrovs'k

2%

2%

6%

0%

0%

0%

Slovjyans'k

3%

0%

12%

4%

0%

0%

Berdichіv

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

7%

Berdyans'k

2%

0%

0%

0%

12%

0%

Energodar

1%

0%

3%

0%

2%

0%

Zaporіzhzhia

4%

0%

4%

4%

14%

0%

Melіtopol'

2%

0%

0%

0%

9%

0%

Kiїv

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

0%

Іrpіn'

3%

0%

0%

10%

0%

7%

Lisichans'k

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

Sєvєrodonets'k

1%

0%

6%

0%

0%

0%

Mykolaiv

3%

0%

2%

15%

0%

0%

Chornomors'k

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

Kharkіv

14%

4%

19%

6%

0%

43%

Kherson

8%

0%

6%

17%

18%

0%

Balakliia

6%

3%

0%

0%

0%

29%

Іzyum

4%

9%

0%

7%

2%

0%

Kupyansk

8%

38%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Lyman

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

I can't know my place

29%

39%

14%

38%

40%

14%

Total (n)

193

30

54

20

75

14

Do you have plans to return back to your home location in the next 6 months?

 

TOTAL

Kharkiv

Dnipro

Mykolaiv

Zaporizhzhia

Newly Liberated Cities

Yes, I plan to move back home in the next 6 months

26%

32%

18%

18%

11%

50%

Yes, I plan to move back home, but don’t know when

53%

44%

58%

57%

69%

36%

No plans to return, I am settling in [TEXT: CITY Q5] (studies, work, etc)

16%

21%

16%

20%

13%

7%

No plans to return, I am going to move to another place in Ukraine

3%

0%

2%

0%

7%

7%

No plans to return, I am going to move abroad

3%

2%

6%

6%

0%

0%

Total (n)

193

30

54

20

75

14

Do you work now (we are talking about paid employment)?

 

TOTAL

Kharkiv

Dnipro

Mykolaiv

Zaporizhzhia

Newly Liberated Cities

Work – FULL-TIME (%)

30%

27%

45%

22%

40%

18%

Work – PART-TIME (%)

12%

16%

13%

16%

10%

5%

on PAID vacation (%)

1%

0%

1%

1%

1%

1%

on UNPAID vacation (%)

7%

9%

3%

7%

6%

8%

UNEMPLOYED, LOOKING FOR A JOB (%)

30%

32%

20%

32%

22%

45%

UNEMPLOYED, NOT LOOKING FOR A JOB (%)

5%

4%

2%

6%

3%

8%

DON’T WORK - retired, on a parental leave, studying, student (%)

16%

12%

17%

16%

18%

16%

Total (n)

2645

600

601

600

600

244

Please, indicate what was your employement status before February 24, 2022?

 

TOTAL

Kharkiv

Dnipro

Mykolaiv

Zaporizhzhia

Newly Liberated Cities

Worked – FULL-TIME (%)

64%

67%

66%

60%

66%

64%

Worked – PART-TIME (%)

13%

15%

14%

15%

12%

12%

on PAID vacation (%)

1%

1%

0%

1%

1%

0%

on UNPAID vacation (%)

1%

0%

1%

1%

1%

0%

UNEMPLOYED, BETWEEN JOBS (%)

4%

3%

2%

4%

4%

6%

UNEMPLOYED, NOT LOOKING FOR A JOB (%)

3%

2%

2%

3%

2%

3%

DIDN’T WORK - retired, on a parental leave, studying, student (%)

14%

11%

14%

16%

15%

14%

Total (n)

2645

600

601

600

600

244

Please, indicate how has your personal income changed compared to your income before 24 February 2022 (please evaluate including all sources of income: salary, pension, benefits, allowances, business, etc.)?

 

TOTAL

Kharkiv

Dnipro

Mykolaiv

Zaporizhzhia

Newly Liberated Cities

Significantly decreased (%)

54%

58%

48%

59%

54%

53%

Slightly decreased (%)

13%

13%

17%

10%

17%

6%

Didn't change (%)

12%

8%

17%

10%

15%

10%

Slightly increased (%)

3%

3%

4%

3%

3%

3%

Significantly increased (%)

2%

2%

3%

2%

1%

2%

I don't have personal income (%)

16%

16%

11%

16%

9%

26%

Total (n)

2645

600

601

600

600

244

Do you experience delays in receiving any of regular income payments (salaries, pensions, benefits, etc.) now?

 

TOTAL

Kharkiv

Dnipro

Mykolaiv

Zaporizhzhia

Newly Liberated Cities

Yes, I experience delays in regular income (%)

25%

25%

24%

26%

24%

26%

No delays (%)

46%

44%

55%

43%

56%

32%

I don't have personal income (%)

29%

31%

21%

31%

20%

42%

Total (n)

2645

600

601

600

600

244

Please, evaluate how easy for someone in the city of [TEXT: CITY Q5] to find a job now?

 

TOTAL

Kharkiv

Dnipro

Mykolaiv

Zaporizhzhia

Newly Liberated Cities

Very easy (%)

1%

0%

2%

1%

2%

0%

Somewhat easy (%)

6%

4%

15%

2%

9%

1%

Somewhat difficult (%)

48%

55%

59%

42%

56%

28%

Very difficult (%)

45%

40%

25%

55%

33%

70%

Total (n)

2645

600

601

600

600

244

At the place where you live at the moment (your home or temporary housing), do you have access to

 

TOTAL

Kharkiv

Dnipro

Mykolaiv

Zaporizhzhia

Newly Liberated Cities

Cold water (%)

89%

97%

99%

73%

98%

80%

Safe drinking water (%)

67%

76%

79%

29%

85%

66%

Hot water (%)

52%

67%

69%

37%

52%

37%

Gas (%)

82%

86%

84%

84%

87%

70%

Electricity (%)

93%

99%

98%

99%

98%

73%

Heating (%)

58%

57%

73%

52%

64%

43%

Internet (%)

87%

95%

95%

89%

94%

61%

Mobile phone signal (%)

97%

99%

99%

97%

98%

90%

Total (n)

2645

600

601

600

600

244

Thinking of your life in [TEXT: CITY Q5], please indicate your personal top 5 priorities needed to address immediately:

 

TOTAL

Kharkiv

Dnipro

Mykolaiv

Zaporizhzhia

Newly Liberated Cities

Water|Electricity|Gas (%)

49%

42%

30%

75%

44%

51%

Water supply restoration

15%

5%

2%

43%

4%

21%

Safe drinking water supply

20%

9%

11%

58%

12%

10%

Hot water supply

9%

13%

4%

8%

16%

5%

Gas supply restoration

6%

3%

1%

3%

4%

21%

Electricity supply restoration

7%

4%

1%

2%

3%

23%

Heating supply

16%

20%

11%

17%

14%

16%

Normal voltage electricity supply

7%

7%

6%

7%

7%

9%

Steady (without interruptions) electricity supply

13%

17%

8%

11%

13%

14%

Improve quality of gas supplied

4%

5%

5%

3%

5%

2%

Medical Services|Medications (%)

35%

32%

38%

28%

37%

41%

Emergency medical services availabilty

5%

5%

7%

6%

4%

5%

Ambulance availabilty

6%

6%

5%

5%

5%

11%

Family doctor service availability

7%

7%

5%

7%

6%

9%

Critical/regular treatment medicines availability

7%

5%

10%

3%

8%

12%

Hospice availability

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

Planned surgery availability

3%

2%

5%

3%

4%

3%

Access to affordable medications

20%

19%

23%

15%

21%

24%

Access to medical/special transportation

2%

1%

3%

1%

1%

2%

Housing|Repairs (%)

23%

24%

20%

14%

23%

32%

Support in renovation of damaged housing

14%

17%

6%

9%

8%

28%

Availability of temporary housing

2%

3%

2%

0%

4%

2%

Availability of long-term housing

5%

4%

7%

3%

7%

3%

Improvement of temporary housing living conditions

5%

5%

9%

3%

8%

2%

Transportation|Roads (%)

24%

21%

29%

19%

27%

25%

Roads reconstruction

9%

6%

16%

6%

7%

9%

Bridges and road connections operational

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%

10%

Public transport availability

11%

12%

12%

7%

13%

9%

Railroad transport availability

3%

3%

3%

5%

2%

1%

Evacuation transport availability

3%

3%

2%

1%

8%

2%

Telecom|Internet (%)

16%

14%

13%

11%

16%

25%

Steady mobile, m-data connection

9%

9%

8%

7%

9%

11%

Restore steady internet connection

7%

4%

4%

2%

6%

16%

Affordable replacement for lost/damaged mobile device

2%

2%

1%

3%

4%

0%

Social Support (%)

47%

52%

54%

39%

54%

38%

Help to restore lost/damaged documents

5%

7%

5%

4%

6%

4%

Mental & emotional health support

11%

12%

14%

7%

16%

7%

Improve access to social protection payments & services

28%

32%

26%

26%

33%

23%

Increase availability of kinder garden and schools (working parents’ support)

7%

8%

10%

4%

9%

6%

Access to secondary school

10%

13%

14%

6%

9%

10%

Legal assistance

4%

5%

5%

4%

7%

2%

Total (n)

2645

600

601

600

600

244

In your opinion, which authority should take the responsibility to plan/execute/oversee the damage reconstruction in the city of [TEXT: CITY Q5]:

 

TOTAL

Kharkiv

Dnipro

Mykolaiv

Zaporizhzhia

Newly Liberated Cities

Local Administration (%)

57%

55%

65%

55%

60%

49%

Ukraine Government (%)

60%

63%

57%

54%

62%

65%

Ukrainian Civil Society (donated by Ukrainian citizens and business) (%)

9%

8%

11%

6%

11%

8%

International Civil Society (non-government international organizations) (%)

11%

11%

10%

14%

12%

9%

International finance organizations (IMF, EBRD, etc) (%)

28%

33%

26%

29%

27%

25%

Foreign governments (%)

13%

14%

8%

15%

13%

12%

Other, please specify [TEXT BOX] (%)

3%

3%

2%

1%

3%

9%

Total (n)

2645

600

601

600

600

244

 

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The author(s)

  • Olena Siletska Public Affairs Service Line Leader, Ukraine
  • Luda Andriyevska Director, US, Public Affairs
  • Helen Fisun Director, US, Public Affairs

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