Consumer Confidence Up in France, Israel, and Spain; Down in Latin America

Global Jobs Index Drops by 1.5 Points

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs
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Washington, DC, April 23, 2019 The April 2019 reading of the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index confirms a downward trend as it drops to 49.0. Over the past three months, the index has fallen by 0.9 point globally. Notable decreases are seen in all three Latin American markets surveyed: Argentina (-5.6), Mexico (-3.9), and Brazil (-3.0). In Europe, only Spain (+2.5) and France (+2.2) are posting gains, while Poland (-2.8), Germany (-2.2), and Hungary (-1.7) are showing significant losses. Overall confidence in the United States is down 1.5 points from its level of three months ago. The Consumer Confidence Index, also called the “National Index,” reflects consumer attitudes on the current and future state of their local economy, their personal finance situations, their savings and their confidence to make large investments.

  • Out of the 24 markets included in the study, only three post significant three-month gains in their National Index: Spain, Israel (+2.4) and France.
  • During the same three-month period, eight countries have incurred significant losses: Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Poland, South Africa (-2.3), Germany, Hungary, and the U.S.
  • Mainland China continues to lead the index with a score of 69.6, followed by Saudi Arabia (64.4), India (62.4) and the U.S. (60.2).
  • At 31.8, Turkey has the lowest index score of all 24 markets, followed by Argentina (33.1), Russia (38.6), and South Korea (39.7).

 

About the Study

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 countries via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States, Canada, China*, Israel, South Africa and Turkey, aged 19-74 in South Korea, and aged 16-74 in the other 17 countries, each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China*, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the United States, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.

Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample.  Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, China*, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.

Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Refinitiv/Ipsos online surveys is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. Please click on this link for more information on credibility intervals.

The results reported each month in the Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during to the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.

The Refinitiv/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.

*mainland

 

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Senior Vice President, US, Public Affairs

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